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Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis,
 J. Hydrol.,
, 2006
"... Abstract One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle may lea ..."
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Abstract One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle may lead to changes in waterresource availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, and droughts, and an amplification of warming through the water vapor feedback. Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle would provide additional support for the theoretical framework that links intensification with warming. This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture, glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length. Data are often incomplete in spatial and temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and sometimes contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing intensification of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends, the empirical evidence to date does not consistently support an increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods. q
Benestad (2004), Global and Planetary Change, pp. 11–26 Recordvalues, nonstationarity tests and extreme value
, 2003
"... The chance of seeing new recordvalues in a stationary series is described by a simple mathematical expression. The expected probability for new recordvalues is then used to estimate the expectation number for new parallel records in N independent stations at a given time. This probability is then ..."
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The chance of seeing new recordvalues in a stationary series is described by a simple mathematical expression. The expected probability for new recordvalues is then used to estimate the expectation number for new parallel records in N independent stations at a given time. This probability is then compared with the observed number of new records. A confidence interval about the theoretical expectation number is estimated using MonteCarlo integrations, and a χ2type test can be used to assess whether the rate of observed new records is higher than expected for a number of stationary series. The results of this recordstatistics test suggest that the observed rate of recordwarm monthly mean temperatures at 17 stations around the world may be unexpectedly high. In addition to testing N independent series as a group, it is also possible to examine the number of records set in a single series of a given length. An expression is derived for how the number of records varies with the length of the series, and a confidence interval is estimated using MonteCarlo integrations. Taking the mean number of records from 17 climate stations spread around the globe, it is shown that by the end of the 20th century, it is higher than expected if the series had been stationary. The recordstatistics tests can be used to identify nonstationarities which are problematic for extrapolations of returnperiods and returnvalues from fitting the tails of extreme value distributions. The results for the monthly mean temperature from 17 stations worldwide point to the presence of nonstationaries, implying that a projection will underestimate the future returnvalues while overestimating the returnperiods for the monthly mean temperature if the warming trend continues. Key words: Recordvalue statistics extremes temperatureRecordevents paper18.tex 13
www.nonlinprocessesgeophys.net/17/169/2010/ © Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
"... Recordbreaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence ..."
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Recordbreaking earthquake intervals in a global catalogue and an aftershock sequence