We propose a new method for estimation in linear models. The "lasso" minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant. Because of the nature of this constraint it tends to produce some coefficients that are exactly zero and hence gives interpretable models. Our simulation studies suggest that the lasso enjoys some of the favourable properties of both subset selection and ridge regression. It produces interpretable models like subset selection and exhibits the stability of ridge regression. There is also an interesting relationship with recent work in adaptive function estimation by Donoho and Johnstone. The lasso idea is quite general and can be applied in a variety of statistical models: extensions to generalized regression models and tree-based models are briefly described. Keywords: regression, subset selection, shrinkage, quadratic programming. 1 Introduction Consider the usual regression situation: we h...

Boosting (Freund & Schapire 1996, Schapire & Singer 1998) is one of the most important recent developments in classification methodology. The performance of many classification algorithms can often be dramatically improved by sequentially applying them to reweighted versions of the input data, and taking a weighted majority vote of the sequence of classifiers thereby produced. We show that this seemingly mysterious phenomenon can be understood in terms of well known statistical principles, namely additive modeling and maximum likelihood. For the two-class problem, boosting can be viewed as an approximation to additive modeling on the logistic scale using maximum Bernoulli likelihood as a criterion. We develop more direct approximations and show that they exhibit nearly identical results to boosting. Direct multi-class generalizations based on multinomial likelihood are derived that exhibit performance comparable to other recently proposed multi-class generalizations of boosting in most...

Abstract not found

Function approximation is viewed from the perspective of numerical optimization in function space, rather than parameter space. A connection is made between stagewise additive expansions and steepest{descent minimization. A general gradient{descent \boosting" paradigm is developed for additive expansions based on any tting criterion. Specic algorithms are presented for least{squares, least{absolute{deviation, and Huber{M loss functions for regression, and multi{class logistic likelihood for classication. Special enhancements are derived for the particular case where the individual additive components are regression trees, and tools for interpreting such \TreeBoost" models are presented. Gradient boosting of regression trees produces competitive, highly robust, interpretable procedures for both regression and classication, especially appropriate for mining less than clean data. Connections between this approach and the boosting methods of Freund and Shapire 1996, and Frie...

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated by a single Gaussian. In this paper we abandon the normality assumption and instead use statistical methods for nonparametric density estimation. For a naive Bayesian classifier, we present experimental results on a variety of natural and artificial domains, comparing two methods of density estimation: assuming normality and modeling each conditional distribution with a single Gaussian; and using nonparametric kernel density estimation. We observe large reductions in error on several natural and artificial data sets, which suggests that kernel estimation is a useful tool for learning Bayesian models. In Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Mateo, 1995 1 Introduction In rec...

[Read before The Royal Statistical Society at a meeting organized by the Research

B-splines are attractive for nonparametric modelling, but choosing the optimal number and positions of knots is a complex task. Equidistant knots can be used, but their small and discrete number allows only limited control over smoothness and fit. We propose to use a relatively large number of knots and a difference penalty on coefficients of adjacent B-splines. We show connections to the familiar spline penalty on the integral of the squared second derivative. A short overview of B-splines, their construction, and penalized likelihood is presented. We discuss properties of penalized B-splines and propose various criteria for the choice of an optimal penalty parameter. Nonparametric logistic regression, density estimation and scatterplot smoothing are used as examples. Some details of the computations are presented.

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In particular, standard smoothness functionals lead to a subclass of regularization networks, the well known Radial Basis Functions approximation schemes. This paper shows that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models and some of the neural networks. In particular, we introduce new classes of smoothness functionals that lead to different classes of basis functions. Additive splines as well as some tensor product splines can be obtained from appropriate classes of smoothness functionals. Furthermore, the same generalization that extends Radial Basis Functions (RBF) to Hyper Basis Functions (HBF) also leads from additive models to ridge approximation models, containing as special cases Breiman's hinge functions, som...

The sensorimotor integration system can be viewed as an observer attempting to estimate its own state and the state of the environment by integrating multiple sources of information. We describe a computational framework capturing this notion, and some specific models of integration and adaptation that result from it. Psychophysical results from two sensorimotor systems, subserving the integration and adaptation of visuo-auditory maps, and estimation of the state of the hand during arm movements, are presented and analyzed within this framework. These results suggest that: (1) Spatial information from visual and auditory systems is integrated so as to reduce the variance in localization. (2) The effects of a remapping in the relation between visual and auditory space can be predicted from a simple learning rule. (3) The temporal propagation of errors in estimating the hand's state is captured by a linear dynamic observer, providing evidence for the existence of an intern...

We discuss a strategy for polychotomous classification that involves estimating class probabilities for each pair of classes, and then coupling the estimates together. The coupling model is similar to the Bradley-Terry method for paired comparisons. We study the nature of the class probability estimates that arise, and examine the performance of the procedure in real and simulated datasets. Classifiers used include linear discriminants, nearest neighbors, and the support vector machine.