Models for the processes by which ideas and influence propagate through a social network have been studied in a number of domains, including the diffusion of medical and technological innovations, the sudden and widespread adoption of various strategies in game-theoretic settings, and the effects of “word of mouth ” in the promotion of new products. Recently, motivated by the design of viral marketing strategies, Domingos and Richardson posed a fundamental algorithmic problem for such social network processes: if we can try to convince a subset of individuals to adopt a new product or innovation, and the goal is to trigger a large cascade of further adoptions, which set of individuals should we target? We consider this problem in several of the most widely studied models in social network analysis. The optimization problem of selecting the most influential nodes is NP-hard here, and we provide the first provable approximation guarantees for efficient algorithms. Using an analysis framework based on submodular functions, we show that a natural greedy strategy obtains a solution that is provably within 63 % of optimal for several classes of models; our framework suggests a general approach for reasoning about the performance guarantees of algorithms for these types of influence problems in social networks. We also provide computational experiments on large collaboration networks, showing that in addition to their provable guarantees, our approximation algorithms significantly out-perform nodeselection heuristics based on the well-studied notions of degree centrality and distance centrality from the field of social networks.

We study the dynamics of information propagation in environments of low-overhead personal publishing, using a large collection of weblogs over time as our example domain. We characterize and model this collection at two levels. First, we present a macroscopic characterization of topic propagation through our corpus, formalizing the notion of long-running "chatter" topics consisting recursively of "spike" topics generated by outside world events, or more rarely, by resonances within the community. Second, we present a microscopic characterization of propagation from individual to individual, drawing on the theory of infectious diseases to model the flow. We propose, validate, and employ an algorithm to induce the underlying propagation network from a sequence of posts, and report on the results.

How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45, 000 blogs and ≈ 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks.

We study the problem of maximizing the expected spread of an innovation or behavior within a social network, in the presence of "word-of-mouth" referral. Our work builds on the observation that individuals' decisions to purchase a product or adopt an innovation are strongly influenced by recommendations from their friends and acquaintances. Understanding

Information cascades are phenomena in which individuals adopt a new action or idea due to influence by others. As such a process spreads through an underlying social network, it can result in widespread adoption overall. We consider information cascades in the context of recommendations, and in particular study the patterns of cascading recommendations that arise in large social networks. We investigate a large person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of four million people who made sixteen million recommendations on half a million products. Such a dataset allows us to pose a number of fundamental questions: What kinds of cascades arise frequently in real life? What features distinguish them? We enumerate and count cascade subgraphs on large directed graphs; as one component of this, we develop a novel efficient heuristic based on graph isomorphism testing that scales to large datasets. We discover novel patterns: the distribution of cascade sizes is approximately heavy-tailed; cascades tend to be shallow, but occasional large bursts of propagation can occur. The relative abundance of di#erent cascade subgraphs suggests subtle properties of the underlying social network and recommendation process.

A central idea in marketing and diffusion research is that influentials—a minority of individuals who influence an exceptional number of their peers—are important to the formation of public opinion. Here we examine this idea, which we call the “influentials hypothesis,” using a series of computer simulations of interpersonal influence processes. Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not by influentials, but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do not exclude the possibility that influentials can be important, they suggest that the influentials hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

Social Network Analysis has emerged as a key paradigm in modern sociology, technology, and information sciences. The paradigm stems from the view that the attributes of an individual in a network are less important than their ties (relationships) with other individuals in the network. Exploring the nature and strength of these ties can help understand the structure and dynamics of social networks and explain real-world phenomena, ranging from organizational efficiency to the spread of information and disease. In this paper, we examine the communication patterns of millions of mobile phone users, allowing us to study the underlying social network in a large-scale communication network. Our primary goal is to address the role of social ties in the formation and growth of groups, or communities, in a mobile network. In particular, we study the evolution of churners in an operator’s network spanning over a period of four months. Our analysis explores the propensity of a subscriber to churn out of a service provider’s network depending on the number of ties (friends) that have already churned. Based on our findings, we propose a spreading activation-based technique that predicts potential churners by examining the current set of churners and their underlying social network. The efficiency of the prediction is expressed as a lift curve, which indicates the fraction of all churners that can be caught when a certain fraction of subscribers were contacted.

Abstract. Social networks often serve as a medium for the diffusion of ideas or innovations. An individual’s decision whether to adopt a product or innovation will be highly dependent on the choices made by the individual’s peers or neighbors in the social network. In this work, we study the game of innovation diffusion with multiple competing innovations such as when multiple companies market competing products using viral marketing. Our first contribution is a natural and mathematically tractable model for the diffusion of multiple innovations in a network. We give a (1−1/e) approximation algorithm for computing the best response to an opponent’s strategy, and prove that the “price of competition ” of this game is at most 2. We also discuss “first mover ” strategies which try to maximize the expected diffusion against perfect competition. Finally, we give an FPTAS for the problem of maximizing the influence of a single player when the underlying graph is a tree. 1

How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45, 000 blogs and ≈ 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life. 1

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