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Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: Some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality’, Risk Analysis, (2004)

by Paul Slovic, M Finucane, E Peters, D G MacGregor
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If I look at the mass I will never act: Psychic numbing and genocide

by Paul Slovic - Judgement and Decision Making , 2007
"... Most people are caring and will exert great effort to rescue individual victims whose needy plight comes to their attention. These same good people, however, often become numbly indifferent to the plight of individuals who are “one of many ” in a much greater problem. Why does this occur? The answer ..."
Abstract - Cited by 71 (7 self) - Add to MetaCart
Most people are caring and will exert great effort to rescue individual victims whose needy plight comes to their attention. These same good people, however, often become numbly indifferent to the plight of individuals who are “one of many ” in a much greater problem. Why does this occur? The answer to this question will help us answer a related question that is the topic of this paper: Why, over the past century, have good people repeatedly ignored mass murder and genocide? Every episode of mass murder is unique and raises unique obstacles to intervention. But the repetitiveness of such atrocities, ignored by powerful people and nations, and by the general public, calls for explanations that may reflect some fundamental deficiency in our humanity — a deficiency that, once identified, might possibly be overcome. One fundamental mechanism that may play a role in many, if not all, episodes of mass-murder neglect involves the capacity to experience affect, the positive and negative feelings that combine with reasoned analysis to guide our judgments, decisions, and actions. I shall draw from psychological research to show how the statistics of mass murder or genocide, no matter how large the numbers, fail to convey the true meaning of such atrocities. The reported numbers of deaths represent dry statistics, “human beings with the tears dried off, ” that fail to spark emotion or feeling and thus fail to motivate action. Recognizing that we cannot rely only upon our moral feelings to motivate proper action against genocide, we must look to moral argument and international law. The 1948 Genocide Convention was supposed to meet this need, but it has not been effective. It is time to examine this failure in light of the psychological deficiencies described here and design legal and institutional mechanisms that will enforce proper response to genocide and other forms of mass murder.

Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information, Global Environ.

by Sabine M Marx , Elke U Weber , Benjamin S Orlove , Anthony Leiserowitz , David H Krantz , Carla Roncoli , Jennifer Phillips - Change , 2007
"... Abstract People process uncertainty information in two qualitatively different systems. Most climate forecast communications assume people process information analytically. Yet people also rely heavily on an experiential processing system. Better understanding of experiential processing may lead to ..."
Abstract - Cited by 34 (1 self) - Add to MetaCart
Abstract People process uncertainty information in two qualitatively different systems. Most climate forecast communications assume people process information analytically. Yet people also rely heavily on an experiential processing system. Better understanding of experiential processing may lead to more comprehensible risk communication products. Retranslation of statistical information into concrete (vicarious) experience facilitates intuitive understanding of probabilistic information and motivates contingency planning. Sharing vicarious experience in group discussions or simulations of forecasts, decisions, and outcomes provides a richer and more representative sample of relevant experience. The emotional impact of the concretization of abstract risks motivates action in ways not provided by an analytic understanding. r
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...ey typically also have some downside. In the following pages, we describe three heuristics of the experiential processing system, drawing on examples of climate information use ranging from Ugandan farmer communities to the general public in the United States and Europe. At the end of this section we also point to some limitations that can make the use of heuristics problematic. 3.1. The affect heuristic or ‘‘risk-as-feelings’’ Many, if not most decisions and actions under risk and uncertainty are driven by how we feel about the situation (Slovic et al., 2002, 2004; Loewenstein et al., 2001). Slovic et al. (2004) define affect as a ‘‘‘faint whisper of emotion’, referring to the specific quality of goodness or badness (1) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (2) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically—note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word ‘treasure’ or the word ‘hate.’ We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as the affect heuristic.’’ It is important to note that affect does not equal bias. If something worries us, we try to reduce the source of wo...

1 Psychology and Global Climate Change: Addressing a Multi-faceted Phenomenon and Set of Challenges A Report by the American Psychological Association’s Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change Members

by Janet Swim, Susan Clayton Phd, Thomas Doherty Psyd, Sustainable Self Llc, Robert Gifford Phd, George Howard Phd, Joseph Reser Phd, Paul Stern Phd, Elke Weber Phd
"... Addressing climate change: Psychology’s contribution ..."
Abstract - Cited by 30 (1 self) - Add to MetaCart
Addressing climate change: Psychology’s contribution

Culture and identity-protective cognition: Explaining the white-male effect in risk perception

by Dan M. Kahan, Donald Braman, John Gastil, Paul Slovic, C. K. Mertz , 2007
"... Why do white men fear various risks less than women and minorities? Known as the “white-male effect, ” this pattern is well documented but poorly understood. This article proposes a new explanation: identityprotective cognition. Putting work on the cultural theory of risk together with work on motiv ..."
Abstract - Cited by 29 (10 self) - Add to MetaCart
Why do white men fear various risks less than women and minorities? Known as the “white-male effect, ” this pattern is well documented but poorly understood. This article proposes a new explanation: identityprotective cognition. Putting work on the cultural theory of risk together with work on motivated cognition in social psychology suggests that individuals selectively credit and dismiss asserted dangers in a manner supportive of their cultural identities. This dynamic, it is hypothesized, drives the white-male effect, which reflects the risk skepticism that hierarchical and individualistic white males display when activities integral to their cultural identities are challenged as harmful. The article presents the results of an 1,800-person study that confirmed that cultural worldviews interact with the impact of gender and race on risk perception in patterns that suggest cultural-identity-protective cognition. It also discusses the implications of these findings for risk regulation and communication. Fear discriminates. Numerous studies show that risk perceptions are skewed across gender and race: women worry more than men, and minorities more than whites, about myriad dangers—from environmental pollution to

The role of the affect and availability heuristics in risk communication

by Carmen Keller, Michael Siegrist, Heinz Gutscher - Risk Analysis , 2006
"... Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past expe ..."
Abstract - Cited by 23 (0 self) - Add to MetaCart
Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past experience or through experimental manipulation, results in greater perceived risk. The present research focused on perception of flooding risk. Study 1 and Study 2 showed that participants who received risk information concerning a longer time period (e.g., 30 years) perceived more danger compared with participants who received risk information for one year. Study 2 showed that the interpretation of risk information was influenced by participants ’ own experiences with flooding. In Study 3, affect was experimentally manipulated. After looking at photographs depicting houses in a flooded region, participants perceived greater risk compared with participants in a control group. Taken together, the results of these three studies suggest that affect is important for successful risk communication. Results of the present research are in line with the affect heuristic proposed by Slovic and colleagues. KEY WORDS: Affect heuristic; availability heuristic; flood risk; risk communication 1.
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...might work because remembered images are tagged with affect, proposing that the availability and affect heuristics are closely connected. The experiential system uses past experience to assess risks (=-=Slovic et al., 2004-=-). Research suggests that past experience is an important factor influencing people’s perception of hazards (Weinstein, 1989). Jackson (1981) found that past experience with earthquakes influenced the...

Technology’s Four Roles in Understanding Individuals’ Conservation of Natural Resources

by Cees J. H. Midden, Florian G. Kaiser, L. Teddy Mccalley - Journal of Social Issues , 2007
"... An overview is presented of four ways in which human beings and technology interact with respect to the conservation of natural resources. The four roles tech-nology plays are: (1) as intermediary, (2) as amplifier, (3) as determinant, and (4) as promoter of environmentally significant behavior. A r ..."
Abstract - Cited by 19 (2 self) - Add to MetaCart
An overview is presented of four ways in which human beings and technology interact with respect to the conservation of natural resources. The four roles tech-nology plays are: (1) as intermediary, (2) as amplifier, (3) as determinant, and (4) as promoter of environmentally significant behavior. A review of pertinent litera-ture supports the conclusion that behavioral scientists can contribute considerably to reducing overall environmental impact by analyzing human behavior and tech-nology in concert. Problems and opportunities for interventions aimed to enhance resource conservation are discussed, such as rebound effects, allocation of control, and communication with users through technological-environmental and sensory inputs. A major conclusion is that well-designed technical environments, systems, and products have a great potential for supporting environmentally sustainable behavior. Since man first stood upright and struck a piece of flint to make a spark, the use of natural resources and technological development has marched hand in hand. As civilization emerged from our increasing control over nature that (agricultural) technology gave the world, population increased and so, again, keeping pace, did technology and the use of natural resources. From the industrial revolution onwards the stamp of human activity on our ecosystems could not be ignored. The impact of human behavior on the natural environment has now led to transformations that have the power to amplify ordinary weather phenomena into increasingly more devastating disasters. The environmental impact of people, whether as individuals, as households, or as societies, can thus be roughly assessed as a function of their numbers, their

Factors in vaccination intention against the pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Eur J Publ Health 2010;20:490–94

by Michel Setbon, Jocelyn Raude
"... spread of the disease. While the vaccine is now available, social acceptance remains relatively uncertain in many societies. The purpose of this study was to examine the beliefs, attitudes and practices associated with the intention to get vaccinated against the A/H1N1 virus among the general popula ..."
Abstract - Cited by 13 (0 self) - Add to MetaCart
spread of the disease. While the vaccine is now available, social acceptance remains relatively uncertain in many societies. The purpose of this study was to examine the beliefs, attitudes and practices associated with the intention to get vaccinated against the A/H1N1 virus among the general population in France. Methods: A representative sample of 1001 individuals (stratified random recruitment pro-cedure, ages 16–90 years) was interviewed by telephone. The questionnaire included a variety of items associated with socio-demographic characteristics, risk perceptions, illness perceptions, political atti-tudes and worldviews as well as intention to get vaccinated. Results: More than 6 out of 10 of the respondents indicated that they planned to get vaccinated when the vaccine becomes available. The same proportion of parents also reported the intention to vaccinate their children against the disease. In multiple regression analyses, socio-cognitive factors consistently predicting influenza A/H1N1 vaccin-ation were: level of worry, risk perception and previous experience of vaccine against seasonal flu. Conclusions: The factors found to predict vaccination intention and their distribution are assumed to be a consequence of the fact that people perceive the risk of swine flu to be similar to that of seasonal flu. As a result, in the absence of an increase of the risk perception of pandemic influenza A/H1N1, a very low level of actual vaccination is forecasted. Behavioural change would require that the risks and

Bringing meaning to numbers: The impact of evaluative categories on decisions

by Ellen Peters, Nathan F. Dieckmann, C. K. Mertz, Paul Slovic, Judith H. Hibbard - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied , 2009
"... Decision makers are often quite poor at using numeric information in decisions. The results of 4 experiments demonstrate that a manipulation of evaluative meaning (i.e., the extent to which an attribute can be mapped onto a good/bad scale; this manipulation is accomplished through the addition of vi ..."
Abstract - Cited by 12 (6 self) - Add to MetaCart
Decision makers are often quite poor at using numeric information in decisions. The results of 4 experiments demonstrate that a manipulation of evaluative meaning (i.e., the extent to which an attribute can be mapped onto a good/bad scale; this manipulation is accomplished through the addition of visual boundary lines and evaluative labels to a graphical format) has a robust influence in health judgments and choices and across diverse adult populations. The manipulation resulted in greater use of numeric quality-of-care information in judgments and less reliance on an irrelevant affective state among the less numerate. Recall results for provided quality-of-care numbers suggested that the manipulation did not influence depth of number pro-cessing with the exception of cost information that was not remembered as well. Results of a reaction-time paradigm revealed that feelings were more accessible than thoughts in the presence of the manipulation, suggesting that the effect may be due, at least in part, to an affective mechanism. Numeric information is often provided in decisions, but may not be usable by consumers without assistance from information providers. Implications for consumer decision making and the functions of affect are discussed.
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...nd more efficient decisions. Without these feelings (similar to being without evaluability), information in a decision may lack meaning and not be used in the resulting choice. Slovic and associates (=-=Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & MacGregor, 2004-=-) proposed the affect heuristic in which affect can be learned from experience or constructed from an unfamiliar context and act in a manner similar to that described by Damasio (1994). Slovic et al. ...

Henrikki (2008), “Interactions of individuals’ company-related attitudes and their buying of the companies’ stocks and products

by Jaakko Aspara, D. Sc. (econ, Bus Adm, M. Sc. (tech - Journal of Behavioral Finance
"... Aspara, Jaakko & Tikkanen, Henrikki (2008), “Interactions of individuals ’ company-related attitudes and their buying of the companies ’ stocks and products”. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 9 (2), 85-94.. NOTE. A final version of the article was published in Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 9 ..."
Abstract - Cited by 11 (6 self) - Add to MetaCart
Aspara, Jaakko & Tikkanen, Henrikki (2008), “Interactions of individuals ’ company-related attitudes and their buying of the companies ’ stocks and products”. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 9 (2), 85-94.. NOTE. A final version of the article was published in Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 9, No 2. Please refer to this article as: Aspara, Jaakko & Tikkanen, Henrikki (2008), “Interactions of individuals ’ company-related attitudes and their buying of the companies ’ stocks and products”. Journal of
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...nd of general positive (affective) evaluation can direct various judgments about the company (see e.g. MacGregor et al., 2000), including judgments or expectations of financial returns and risks (see =-=Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & MacGregor, 2004-=-). For instance, Ganzach (2001) found that even professional analysts based their judgments of risk and return for stocks of unfamiliar companies upon a global attitude towards them. In principle, thi...

Maximizers versus satisficers: Decision-making styles, competence, and outcomes

by Andrew M. Parker, Wändi Bruine De Bruin, Baruch Fischhoff
"... Our previous research suggests that people reporting a stronger desire to maximize obtain worse life outcomes (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007). Here, we examine whether this finding may be explained by the decision-making styles of self-reported maximizers. Expanding on Schwartz et al. (2002), we find ..."
Abstract - Cited by 10 (1 self) - Add to MetaCart
Our previous research suggests that people reporting a stronger desire to maximize obtain worse life outcomes (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007). Here, we examine whether this finding may be explained by the decision-making styles of self-reported maximizers. Expanding on Schwartz et al. (2002), we find that self-reported maximizers are more likely to show problematic decision-making styles, as evidenced by self-reports of less behavioral coping, greater dependence on others when making decisions, more avoidance of decision making, and greater tendency to experience regret. Contrary to predictions, self-reported maximizers were more likely to report spontaneous decision making. However, the relationship between self-reported maximizing and worse life outcomes is largely unaffected by controls for measures of other decision-making styles, decision-making competence, and demographic variables.
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... rational decision making, reflecting their perception of systematic deliberation about their choices; (2) less intuitive decision making, attempting to avoid relying on feelings and instincts (e.g., =-=Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & McGregor, 2004-=-); (3) more dependence on others, reflecting interpersonal comparisons and the quest for information; (4) more avoidant decision making, postponing decisions to search for more information and ponder ...

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