Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

The ability to simultaneously localize a robot and accurately map its surroundings is considered by many to be a key prerequisite of truly autonomous robots. However, few approaches to this problem scale up to handle the very large number of landmarks present in real environments. Kalman filter-based algorithms, for example, require time quadratic in the number of landmarks to incorporate each sensor observation. This paper presents FastSLAM, an algorithm that recursively estimates the full posterior distribution over robot pose and landmark locations, yet scales logarithmically with the number of landmarks in the map. This algorithm is based on a factorization of the posterior into a product of conditional landmark distributions and a distribution over robot paths. The algorithm has been run successfully on as many as 50,000 landmarks, environments far beyond the reach of previous approaches. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the FastSLAM algorithm on both simulated and real-world data.

Planning under uncertainty is a central problem in the study of automated sequential decision making, and has been addressed by researchers in many different fields, including AI planning, decision analysis, operations research, control theory and economics. While the assumptions and perspectives adopted in these areas often differ in substantial ways, many planning problems of interest to researchers in these fields can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) and analyzed using the techniques of decision theory. This paper presents an overview and synthesis of MDP-related methods, showing how they provide a unifying framework for modeling many classes of planning problems studied in AI. It also describes structural properties of MDPs that, when exhibited by particular classes of problems, can be exploited in the construction of optimal or approximately optimal policies or plans. Planning problems commonly possess structure in the reward and value functions used to de...

Abstract—The simultaneous localization and map building (SLAM) problem asks if it is possible for an autonomous vehicle to start in an unknown location in an unknown environment and then to incrementally build a map of this environment while simultaneously using this map to compute absolute vehicle location. Starting from the estimation-theoretic foundations of this problem developed in [1]–[3], this paper proves that a solution to the SLAM problem is indeed possible. The underlying structure of the SLAM problem is first elucidated. A proof that the estimated map converges monotonically to a relative map with zero uncertainty is then developed. It is then shown that the absolute accuracy of the map and the vehicle location reach a lower bound defined only by the initial vehicle uncertainty. Together, these results show that it is possible for an autonomous vehicle to start in an unknown location in an unknown environment and, using relative observations only, incrementally build a perfect map of the world and to compute simultaneously a bounded estimate of vehicle location. This paper also describes a substantial implementation of the SLAM algorithm on a vehicle operating in an outdoor environment using millimeter-wave (MMW) radar to provide relative map observations. This implementation is used to demonstrate how some key issues such as map management and data association can be handled in a practical environment. The results obtained are cross-compared with absolute locations of the map landmarks obtained by surveying. In conclusion, this paper discusses a number of key issues raised by the solution to the SLAM problem including suboptimal map-building algorithms and map management. Index Terms—Autonomous navigation, millimeter wave radar, simultaneous localization and map building. I.

This article provides a comprehensive introduction into the field of robotic mapping, with a focus on indoor mapping. It describes and compares various probabilistic techniques, as they are presently being applied to a vast array of mobile robot mapping problems. The history of robotic mapping is also described, along with an extensive list of open research problems.

Localization, that is the estimation of a robot's location from sensor data, is a fundamental problem in mobile robotics. This papers presents a version of Markov localization which provides accurate position estimates and which is tailored towards dynamic environments. The key idea of Markov localization is to maintain a probability density over the space of all locations of a robot in its environment. Our approach represents this space metrically, using a ne-grained grid to approximate densities. It is able to globally localize the robot from scratch and to recover from localization failures. It is robust to approximate models of the environment (such as occupancy grid maps) and noisy sensors (such as ultrasound sensors). Our approach also includes a ltering technique which allows a mobile robot to reliably estimate its position even in densely populated environments in which crowds of people block the robot's sensors for extended periods of time. The method described he...

This paper presents a new algorithm for mobile robot localization, called Monte Carlo Localization (MCL). MCL is a version of Markov localization, a family of probabilistic approaches that have recently been applied with great practical success. However, previous approaches were either computationally cumbersome (such as grid-based approaches that represent the state space by high-resolution 3D grids), or had to resort to extremely coarse-grained resolutions. Our approach is computationally efficient while retaining the ability to represent (almost) arbitrary distributions. MCL applies sampling-based methods for approximating probability distributions, in a way that places computation " where needed." The number of samples is adapted on-line, thereby invoking large sample sets only when necessary. Empirical results illustrate that MCL yields improved accuracy while requiring an order of magnitude less computation when compared to previous approaches. It is also much easier to implement...

The Spatial Semantic Hierarchy is a model of knowledge of large-scale space consisting of multiple interacting representations, both qualitative and quantitative. The SSH is inspired by the properties of the human cognitive map, and is intended to serve both as a model of the human cognitive map and as a method for robot exploration and map-building. The multiple levels of the SSH express states of partial knowledge, and thus enable the human or robotic agent to deal robustly with uncertainty during both learning and problem-solving. The control level represents useful patterns of sensorimotor interaction with the world in the form of trajectory-following and hill-climbing control laws leading to locally distinctive states. Local geometric maps in local frames of reference can be constructed at the control level to serve as observers for control laws in particular neighborhoods. The causal level abstracts continuous behavior among distinctive states into a discrete model ...

Mobile robots can use geometric or topological maps of their environment to navigate reliably. Automatic creation of such maps is still an unrealized goal, especially in environments that have large cyclical structures. Drawing on recent techniques of global registration and correlation, we present a method, called Local Registration and Global Correlation (LRGC), for reliable reconstruction of consistent global maps from dense range data. The method is attractive because it is incremental, producing an updated map with every new sensor input; and runs in constant time independent of the size of the map (except when closing large cycles). A real-time implementation and results are presented for several indoor environments. 1.

This article describes the software architecture of an autonomous, interactive tour-guide robot. It presents a modular and distributed software architecture, which integrates localization, mapping, collision avoidance, planning, and various modules concerned with user interaction and Web-based telepresence. At its heart, the software approach relies on probabilistic computation, on-line learning, and any-time algorithms. It enables robots to operate safely, reliably, and at high speeds in highly dynamic environments, and does not require any modifications of the environment to aid the robot's operation. Special emphasis is placed on the design of interactive capabilities that appeal to people's intuition. The interface provides new means for human-robot interaction with crowds of people in public places, and it also provides people all around the world with the ability to establish a "virtual telepresence" using the Web. To illustrate our approach, results are reported obtained in mid-...