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104
Prices and unit labor costs: A new test of price stickiness
, 1999
"... This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the aggregate price level and the dynamics of inflation. I compare the model’s predictions with those of a perfectly competitive, flexible price ‘benchmark’ model (corresponding to the model of pricing ..."
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Cited by 356 (11 self)
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This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the aggregate price level and the dynamics of inflation. I compare the model’s predictions with those of a perfectly competitive, flexible price ‘benchmark’ model (corresponding to the model of pricing assumed in standard real business cycle models), and evaluate how much the introduction of nominal rigidities improves the model’s fit with the data. The model’s predictions are derived using only the firms optimal pricing problem; taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation, labor productivity, and output, I determine the implied path of prices predicted by the model. Because prices are not a stationary series, I present my results in terms of the predicted path of the price/unit labor cost ratio, where the parameters characterizing such paths are chosen to maximize the fit with the data. I find that, while the evolution of prices relative to unit labor costs is quite different from what would be predicted by the flexibleprice ‘benchmark ’ model, a simple model of nominal price rigidity delivers an extremely close approximation both of the price/unit labor cost ratio and of the inflation series, even under a very simple approach to the measurement of marginal costs. Moreover, the results are robust to modifications of this measure.
Bayesian analysis of DSGE models
 ECONOMETRICS REVIEW
, 2007
"... This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian model checking, posterior odds comparisons, and ..."
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Cited by 130 (5 self)
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This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian model checking, posterior odds comparisons, and comparisons to vector autoregressions, as well as the nonlinear estimation based on a secondorder accurate model solution. These methods are applied to data generated from correctly specified and misspecified linearized DSGE models, and a DSGE model that was solved with a secondorder perturbation method. (JEL C11, C32, C51, C52)
Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective
 IN MEANSTESTED TRANSFERS IN THE
"... The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem), an ..."
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Cited by 128 (6 self)
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The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem), and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced. This paper summarizes the development of those ideas by the Cowles Commission, the response to their work by structural econometricians and VAR econometricians, and the response to structural and VAR econometrics by calibrators, advocates of natural and social experiments, and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians.
Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale
, 1996
"... This paper overcomes an important objection against the empirical relevance of the BenhabibFarmer model as a potential account of actual business cycle fluctuations. This is attributable to an elasticity effect and a returnstoscale effect of capacity utilization. These effects are closely relate ..."
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Cited by 104 (33 self)
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This paper overcomes an important objection against the empirical relevance of the BenhabibFarmer model as a potential account of actual business cycle fluctuations. This is attributable to an elasticity effect and a returnstoscale effect of capacity utilization. These effects are closely related to the empirical puzzles that capital appears to play an insignificant role in explaining cyclical movements in output and that the estimated labor elasticity appears to be larger than labor’s share. Due to these effects, multiple equilibria and persistent fluctuations can easily occur in a growth model for externalities mild enough so that the aggregatelabordemand curve is downward sloping. Analyses show that the propagation mechanism generated by capacity utilization under mild increasing returns is capable of explaining the periodic patterns of U.S. business cycles documented by
Estimating macroeconomic models: a likelihood approach
, 2006
"... This paper shows how particle filtering facilitates likelihoodbased inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The economies can be nonlinear and/or nonnormal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those characterizing prefer ..."
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Cited by 102 (27 self)
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This paper shows how particle filtering facilitates likelihoodbased inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The economies can be nonlinear and/or nonnormal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those characterizing preferences and technology, and to compare different economies. Both tasks can be implemented from either a classical or a Bayesian perspective. We illustrate the technique by estimating a business cycle model with investmentspecific technological change, preference shocks, and stochastic volatility.
Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices
 Quarterly Journal of Economics
, 1994
"... This paper uses twovariable autoregressions to characterize transitory components in GNP and stock prices. Shocks to GNP holding consumption constant are almost entirely transitory, and account for large fractions of the variance of GNP growth. If consumption does not change, consumers must think ..."
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Cited by 95 (2 self)
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This paper uses twovariable autoregressions to characterize transitory components in GNP and stock prices. Shocks to GNP holding consumption constant are almost entirely transitory, and account for large fractions of the variance of GNP growth. If consumption does not change, consumers must think that any GNP change is transitory. The facts that the consumption/GNP ratio forecasts GNP growth and that consumption is nearly a random walk drive this result. An implication is that consumption provides a good estimate of the "trend " in GNP. Prices and dividends behave similarly shocks to prices holding dividends constant are almost entirely transitory. I.
Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth
 REV. FINANC. STUD
, 2000
"... We study how decision makers' concerns about robustness affect prices and quantities in a stochastic growth model. In the model economy, growth rates in technology are altered by infrequent large shocks and continuous small shocks. An investor observes movements in the technology level but cann ..."
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Cited by 75 (11 self)
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We study how decision makers' concerns about robustness affect prices and quantities in a stochastic growth model. In the model economy, growth rates in technology are altered by infrequent large shocks and continuous small shocks. An investor observes movements in the technology level but cannot perfectly distinguish their sources. Instead the investor solves a signal extraction problem. We depart from most of the macroeconomics and finance literature by presuming that the investor treats the specification of technology evolution as an approximation. To promote a decision rule that is robust to model misspecification, an investor acts as if a malevolent player threatens to perturb the actual data generating process relative to his approximating model. We study how a concern about robustness alters asset prices. We show that the dynamic evolution of the riskreturn tradeoff is dominated by movements in the growthstate probabilities and that the evolution of the dividendprice ratio is driven primarily by the capitaltechnology ratio.
Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle
, 1996
"... The mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are one of the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expec ..."
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Cited by 61 (2 self)
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The mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are one of the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expectations macroeconomic models  a real business cycle model, a sticky price model and a liquidity effect model  account for these central facts. While the models have diverse successes and failures, none can account for the fact that both real and nominal interest rates are "inverted leading indicators" of real economic activity. That is, none of the models captures the post...
Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks
 Frontiers of Macroeconomics
, 2006
"... There is ample evidence that the frequency of price adjustments differs substantially across sectors. This paper introduces sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness into an otherwise standard sticky price model to study how it affects the dynamics of monetary economies. Qualitative and quantitativ ..."
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Cited by 54 (5 self)
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There is ample evidence that the frequency of price adjustments differs substantially across sectors. This paper introduces sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness into an otherwise standard sticky price model to study how it affects the dynamics of monetary economies. Qualitative and quantitative results from a realistic calibration for the U.S. economy show that monetary shocks tend to have larger and more persistent real effects in heterogeneous economies, when compared to identicalfirms economies with similar degrees of nominal and real rigidity. In the presence of strategic complementarities in price setting, sectors with lower frequencies of price adjustment have a disproportionate effect on the aggregate price level. In order to better approximate the dynamics of the calibrated heterogeneous economy, an identicalfirms model requires a frequency of price changes that is up to three times lower than the average of the heterogeneous economy.
Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
, 2007
"... This paper employs the onesector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four di®erent procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1) Maximum Likelihood (with and without measurement errors and incorporating priors), 2) Generalized Meth ..."
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Cited by 53 (3 self)
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This paper employs the onesector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four di®erent procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1) Maximum Likelihood (with and without measurement errors and incorporating priors), 2) Generalized Method of Moments, 3) Simulated Method of Moments, and 4) the Extended Method of Simulated Moments proposed by Smith (1993). Monte Carlo analysis shows that although all procedures deliver reasonably good estimates, there are substantial di®erences in statistical and computational e±ciency in the small samples currently available to estimate DSGE models. The implications of the singularity of DSGE models for each estimation procedure are fully discussed.