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Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index: Whose Perceptions Are They Anyway? Discussion Draft
, 2005
"... in the World Bank Institute. The views expressed in this paper are the personal views of the authors alone and should not be attributed to the University of Maryland or the World Bank. The authors are grateful to In recent years, corruption has become an important issue among a wide audience, includ ..."
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Cited by 11 (2 self)
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in the World Bank Institute. The views expressed in this paper are the personal views of the authors alone and should not be attributed to the University of Maryland or the World Bank. The authors are grateful to In recent years, corruption has become an important issue among a wide audience, including development economists, development institutions, politicians and the general public alike. Along with the realization that the quality of a country’s institutions is crucial to development have come various empirical studies that have used various
Foreign Aid and Developing Countries Creditworthiness,Mimeo
, 2006
"... Abstract We explore whether foreign aid affects developing countries' creditworthiness, as proxied by the Institutional Investor's measure of country credit risk. Based on a simple model of international borrowing and lending, we develop the hypothesis that aid reduces the likelihood that ..."
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Cited by 3 (0 self)
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Abstract We explore whether foreign aid affects developing countries' creditworthiness, as proxied by the Institutional Investor's measure of country credit risk. Based on a simple model of international borrowing and lending, we develop the hypothesis that aid reduces the likelihood that borrowers in a given country default on their foreign debt. We then test this hypothesis, using a panel data set that covers a large number of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s. Our empirical findings support the notion that aid improves countries' standing vis-a-vis international capital markets. However, the strength of this effect differs across types of aid and country groups.
Juan J. Cruces Statistical Properties of Sovereign Credit RatingsFirst Version: Aug-03-2000 This Version: Feb-09-2001 Statistical Properties of Sovereign Credit Ratings
"... The sovereign credit rating is a key determinant of the cost and availability of international financing for an economy. This paper models ratings as a function of expected repayment capacity, derives testable hypotheses, and conducts a statistical analysis based of the ratings awarded by Institutio ..."
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The sovereign credit rating is a key determinant of the cost and availability of international financing for an economy. This paper models ratings as a function of expected repayment capacity, derives testable hypotheses, and conducts a statistical analysis based of the ratings awarded by Institutional Investor. The key findings are as follows: 1) Expected rating revisions should be positive for moderately low rated countries and negative for moderately high rated countries. 2) Rating revisions are serially correlated with about one third of a country revision expected to carry-over from one semester to the next. This finding is confirmed with ratings awarded by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. 3) There are regional factors in revisions with about 17 percent of the revision to a regional portfolio expected to carry-over to each country in the region next semester. 4) The serial correlation of revisions is the highest in Emerging and Eastern European countries and the lowest among OPEC members. 5) The 1980s were surprisingly bad years for low- and middle-income country creditworthiness, while the early 1990s were surprisingly good. 6) The East Asian crisis of 1997-98 was much less significant in terms of its effect on global creditworthiness than the debt crisis of the early
Multinational Banks, Credit Risk, and Financial Crises
, 2005
"... Abstract: The global financial unrest over the last decade has shifted the attention of banking regulators (Basel II, 2001) in estimating default probabilities for a variety of borrowers. Within a binary choice panel data framework, the current study analyzes various models and cross-examines their ..."
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Abstract: The global financial unrest over the last decade has shifted the attention of banking regulators (Basel II, 2001) in estimating default probabilities for a variety of borrowers. Within a binary choice panel data framework, the current study analyzes various models and cross-examines their performance in identifying financial crises in emerging markets. Using financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, and international factors, the paper identifies a set of warning indicators and discriminates among the three estimators employed. The most important determinants of commercial/official arrears and reschedulings are the debt-to-GDP ratio, inflation, trade liberalization, and the variability of GNP per capita growth. In addition to that, changes in financial flows from foreign investors do affect default frequencies, while external developments are found to be insignificant. Cross-modeling comparison indicates the presence of different exogenous risk factors, depending on the approach employed. Further analysis indicates the presence of heterogeneity, but pertinent estimators fail to perform well. Unlike the fixed- and random-effects estimators, the pooled-logit model yields the minimum number of misclassifications. When past credit performance is taken into account, the significance of some signals is reduced, but the model’s misclassification performance is markedly enhanced.
First Version: Aug-03-2000 This Version: Feb-09-2001 Statistical Properties of Sovereign Credit Ratings
"... The sovereign credit rating is a key determinant of the cost and availability of international financing for an economy. This paper models ratings as a function of expected repayment capacity, derives testable hypotheses, and conducts a statistical analysis based of the ratings awarded by Institutio ..."
Abstract
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The sovereign credit rating is a key determinant of the cost and availability of international financing for an economy. This paper models ratings as a function of expected repayment capacity, derives testable hypotheses, and conducts a statistical analysis based of the ratings awarded by Institutional Investor. The key findings are as follows: 1) Expected rating revisions should be positive for moderately low rated countries and negative for moderately high rated countries. 2) Rating revisions are serially correlated with about one third of a country revision expected to carry-over from one semester to the next. This finding is confirmed with ratings awarded by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. 3) There are regional factors in revisions with about 17 percent of the revision to a regional portfolio expected to carry-over to each country in the region next semester. 4) The serial correlation of revisions is the highest in Emerging and Eastern European countries and the lowest among OPEC members. 5) The 1980s were surprisingly bad years for low- and middle-income country creditworthiness, while the early 1990s were surprisingly good. 6) The East Asian crisis of 1997-98 was much less significant in terms of its effect on global creditworthiness than the debt crisis of the early
notice, is given to the source. Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth
, 2004
"... and to Francisco Gallego for excellent research assistance. Caballero thanks the NSF for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ..."
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and to Francisco Gallego for excellent research assistance. Caballero thanks the NSF for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
