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371
Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation
 American Journal of Political Science
, 2000
"... Social scientists rarely take full advantage of the information available in their statistical results. As a consequence, they miss opportunities to present quantities that are of greatest substantive interest for their research and express the appropriate degree of certainty about these quantities. ..."
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Cited by 600 (26 self)
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Social scientists rarely take full advantage of the information available in their statistical results. As a consequence, they miss opportunities to present quantities that are of greatest substantive interest for their research and express the appropriate degree of certainty about these quantities. In this article, we offer an approach, built on the technique of statistical simulation, to extract the currently overlooked information from any statistical method and to interpret and present it in a readerfriendly manner. Using this technique requires some expertise,
General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations
 J. Comput. Graph. Statist
, 1998
"... We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develo ..."
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Cited by 551 (8 self)
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We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develop convergencemonitoring summaries that are relevant for the purposes for which the simulations are used. We recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the mixture of sequences. Finally, we discuss multivariate analogues, for assessing convergence of several parameters simultaneously.
Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation
 American Political Science Review
, 2000
"... We propose a remedy for the discrepancy between the way political scientists analyze data with missing values and the recommendations of the statistics community. Methodologists and statisticians agree that "multiple imputation" is a superior approach to the problem of missing data scatter ..."
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Cited by 419 (50 self)
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We propose a remedy for the discrepancy between the way political scientists analyze data with missing values and the recommendations of the statistics community. Methodologists and statisticians agree that "multiple imputation" is a superior approach to the problem of missing data scattered through one's explanatory and dependent variables than the methods currently used in applied data analysis. The reason for this discrepancy lies with the fact that the computational algorithms used to apply the best multiple imputation models have been slow, difficult to implement, impossible to run with existing commercial statistical packages, and demanding of considerable expertise. In this paper, we adapt an existing algorithm, and use it to implement a generalpurpose, multiple imputation model for missing data. This algorithm is considerably faster and easier to use than the leading method recommended in the statistics literature. We also quantify the risks of current missing data practices, ...
Approximate likelihood ratio test for branches: a fast, accurate and powerful alternative
 SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY
, 2006
"... We revisit statistical tests for branches of evolutionary trees reconstructed upon molecular data. A new, fast, approximate likelihoodratio test (aLRT) for branches is presented here as a competitive alternative to nonparametric bootstrap and Bayesian estimation of branch support. The aLRT is based ..."
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Cited by 275 (9 self)
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We revisit statistical tests for branches of evolutionary trees reconstructed upon molecular data. A new, fast, approximate likelihoodratio test (aLRT) for branches is presented here as a competitive alternative to nonparametric bootstrap and Bayesian estimation of branch support. The aLRT is based on the idea of the conventional LRT, with the null hypothesis corresponding to the assumption that the inferred branch has length 0. We show that the LRT statistic is asymptotically distributed as a maximum of three random variables drawn from the 1 2 1 2 χ 2 0 + χ
CODA: Convergence diagnosis and output analysis software for Gibbs sampling output.
, 1995
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Modelbased Geostatistics
 Applied Statistics
, 1998
"... Conventional geostatistical methodology solves the problem of predicting the realised value of a linear functional of a Gaussian spatial stochastic process, S(x), based on observations Y i = S(x i ) + Z i at sampling locations x i , where the Z i are mutually independent, zeromean Gaussian random v ..."
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Cited by 228 (9 self)
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Conventional geostatistical methodology solves the problem of predicting the realised value of a linear functional of a Gaussian spatial stochastic process, S(x), based on observations Y i = S(x i ) + Z i at sampling locations x i , where the Z i are mutually independent, zeromean Gaussian random variables. We describe two spatial applications for which Gaussian distributional assumptions are clearly inappropriate. The first concerns the assessment of residual contamination from nuclear weapons testing on a South Pacific island, in which the sampling method generates spatially indexed Poisson counts conditional on an unobserved spatially varying intensity of radioactivity; we conclude that a coventional geostatistical analysis oversmooths the data and underestimates the spatial extremes of the intensity. The second application provides a description of spatial variation in the risk of campylobacter infections relative to other enteric infections in part of North Lancashire and South C...
Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution.
 Trends in Ecology and Evolution,
, 2009
"... How should ecologists and evolutionary biologists analyze nonnormal data that involve random effects? Nonnormal data such as counts or proportions often defy classical statistical procedures. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide a more flexible approach for analyzing nonnormal data when ..."
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Cited by 183 (1 self)
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How should ecologists and evolutionary biologists analyze nonnormal data that involve random effects? Nonnormal data such as counts or proportions often defy classical statistical procedures. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide a more flexible approach for analyzing nonnormal data when random effects are present. The explosion of research on GLMMs in the last decade has generated considerable uncertainty for practitioners in ecology and evolution. Despite the availability of accurate techniques for estimating GLMM parameters in simple cases, complex GLMMs are challenging to fit and statistical inference such as hypothesis testing remains difficult. We review the use (and misuse) of GLMMs in ecology and evolution, discuss estimation and inference and summarize 'bestpractice' data analysis procedures for scientists facing this challenge. Generalized linear mixed models: powerful but challenging tools Data sets in ecology and evolution (EE) Researchers faced with nonnormal data often try shortcuts such as transforming data to achieve normality and homogeneity of variance, using nonparametric tests or relying on the robustness of classical ANOVA to nonnormality for balanced designs Instead of shoehorning their data into classical statistical frameworks, researchers should use statistical approaches that match their data. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) combine the properties of two statistical frameworks that are widely used in EE, linear mixed models (which incorporate random effects) and generalized linear models (which handle nonnormal data by using link functions and exponential family [e.g. normal, Poisson or binomial] distributions). GLMMs are the best tool for analyzing nonnormal data that involve random effects: all one has to do, in principle, is specify a distribution, link function and structure of the random effects. For example, in Box 1, we use a GLMM to quantify the magnitude of the genotypeenvironment interaction in the response of Arabidopsis to herbivory. To do so, we select a Poisson distribution with a logarithmic link (typical for count data) and specify that the total number of fruits per plant and the responses to fertilization and clipping could vary randomly across populations and across genotypes within a population. However, GLMMs are surprisingly challenging to use even for statisticians. Although several software packages can handle GLMMs
General state space Markov chains and MCMC algorithm
 PROBABILITY SURVEYS
, 2004
"... This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (noncountable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which follows. Then, sufficient conditions for geometric and uniform e ..."
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Cited by 177 (35 self)
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This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (noncountable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which follows. Then, sufficient conditions for geometric and uniform ergodicity are presented, along with quantitative bounds on the rate of convergence to stationarity. Many of these results are proved using direct coupling constructions based on minorisation and drift conditions. Necessary and sufficient conditions for Central Limit Theorems (CLTs) are also presented, in some cases proved via the Poisson Equation or direct regeneration constructions. Finally, optimal scaling and weak convergence results for MetropolisHastings algorithms are discussed. None of the results presented is new, though many of the proofs are. We also describe some Open Problems.
Bayesian phylogenetic inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
 Biometrics
, 1999
"... SUMMARY. We derive a Markov chain to sample from the posterior distribution for a phylogenetic tree given sequence information from the corresponding set of organisms, a stochastic model for these data, and a prior distribution on the space of trees. A transformation of the tree into a canonical cop ..."
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Cited by 159 (6 self)
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SUMMARY. We derive a Markov chain to sample from the posterior distribution for a phylogenetic tree given sequence information from the corresponding set of organisms, a stochastic model for these data, and a prior distribution on the space of trees. A transformation of the tree into a canonical cophenetic matrix form suggests a simple and effective proposal distribution for selecting candidate trees close to the current tree in the chain. We illustrate the algorithm with restriction site data on 9 plant species, then extend to DNA sequences from 32 species of fish. The algorithm mixes well in both examples from random starting trees, generating reproducible estimates and credible sets for the path of evolution.
Bayesian methods for hidden Markov models: Recursive computing in the 21st century.
 Journal of the American Statistical Association,
, 2002
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