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348
Bayesian Data Analysis
, 1995
"... I actually own a copy of Harold Jeffreys’s Theory of Probability but have only read small bits of it, most recently over a decade ago to confirm that, indeed, Jeffreys was not too proud to use a classical chisquared pvalue when he wanted to check the misfit of a model to data (Gelman, Meng and Ste ..."
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Cited by 2194 (63 self)
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I actually own a copy of Harold Jeffreys’s Theory of Probability but have only read small bits of it, most recently over a decade ago to confirm that, indeed, Jeffreys was not too proud to use a classical chisquared pvalue when he wanted to check the misfit of a model to data (Gelman, Meng and Stern, 2006). I do, however, feel that it is important to understand where our probability models come from, and I welcome the opportunity to use the present article by Robert, Chopin and Rousseau as a platform for further discussion of foundational issues. 2 In this brief discussion I will argue the following: (1) in thinking about prior distributions, we should go beyond Jeffreys’s principles and move toward weakly informative priors; (2) it is natural for those of us who work in social and computational sciences to favor complex models, contra Jeffreys’s preference for simplicity; and (3) a key generalization of Jeffreys’s ideas is to explicitly include model checking in the process of data analysis.
Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models
 Bayesian Analysis
, 2006
"... Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new foldednoncentralt family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative priors i ..."
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Cited by 430 (15 self)
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Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new foldednoncentralt family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative priors in this family. We use an example to illustrate serious problems with the inversegamma family of “noninformative ” prior distributions. We suggest instead to use a uniform prior on the hierarchical standard deviation, using the halft family when the number of groups is small and in other settings where a weakly informative prior is desired.
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B
, 2007
"... Summary. Probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables take the form of predictive densities or predictive cumulative distribution functions. We propose a diagnostic approach to the evaluation of predictive performance that is based on the paradigm of maximizing the sharpness of the predictive dis ..."
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Cited by 116 (23 self)
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Summary. Probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables take the form of predictive densities or predictive cumulative distribution functions. We propose a diagnostic approach to the evaluation of predictive performance that is based on the paradigm of maximizing the sharpness of the predictive distributions subject to calibration. Calibration refers to the statistical consistency between the distributional forecasts and the observations and is a joint property of the predictions and the events that materialize. Sharpness refers to the concentration of the predictive distributions and is a property of the forecasts only. A simple theoretical framework allows us to distinguish between probabilistic calibration, exceedance calibration and marginal calibration. We propose and study tools for checking calibration and sharpness, among them the probability integral transform histogram, marginal calibration plots, the sharpness diagram and proper scoring rules. The diagnostic approach is illustrated by an assessment and ranking of probabilistic forecasts of wind speed at the Stateline wind energy centre in the US Pacific Northwest. In combination with crossvalidation or in the time series context, our proposal provides very general, nonparametric alternatives to the use of information criteria for model diagnostics and model selection.
BUGS: Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. Version 1.4.1, Medical Research council BiostatisticsUnit, CambridgeUniversity,
, 2004
"... ..."
Inference in longhorizon event studies: A bayesian approach with an application to initial public offerings
 JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 2000
"... Statistical inference in longhorizon event studies has been hampered by the fact that abnormal returns are neither normally distributed nor independent. This study presents a new approach to inference that overcomes these difficulties and dominates other popular testing methods. I illustrate the us ..."
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Cited by 90 (7 self)
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Statistical inference in longhorizon event studies has been hampered by the fact that abnormal returns are neither normally distributed nor independent. This study presents a new approach to inference that overcomes these difficulties and dominates other popular testing methods. I illustrate the use of the methodology by examining the longhorizon returns of initial public offerings (IPOs). I find that the Fama and French (1993) threefactor model is inconsistent with the observed longhorizon price performance of these IPOs, whereas a characteristicbased model cannot be rejected.
Bayesian estimation of a multilevel IRT model using Gibbs sampling
 Psychometrika
, 2001
"... In this article, atwolevel regression model is imposed on the ability parameters in an item response theory (IRT) model. The advantage of using latent rather an observed scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that it offers the possibility of separating the influence of item difficu ..."
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Cited by 70 (8 self)
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In this article, atwolevel regression model is imposed on the ability parameters in an item response theory (IRT) model. The advantage of using latent rather an observed scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that it offers the possibility of separating the influence of item difficulty and ability level and modeling response variation and measurement rror. Another advantage is that, contrary to observed scores, latent scores are testindependent, which offers the possibility of using results from different tests in one analysis where the parameters of the IRT model and the multilevel model can be concurrently estimated. The twoparameter no mal ogive model is used for the IRT measurement model. It will be shown that he parameters of the twoparameter normal ogive model and the multilevel model can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. Examples using simulated and real data are given.
Bayesian Model Assessment and Comparison Using CrossValidation Predictive Densities
 Neural Computation
, 2002
"... In this work, we discuss practical methods for the assessment, comparison, and selection of complex hierarchical Bayesian models. A natural way to assess the goodness of the model is to estimate its future predictive capability by estimating expected utilities. Instead of just making a point estimat ..."
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Cited by 49 (16 self)
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In this work, we discuss practical methods for the assessment, comparison, and selection of complex hierarchical Bayesian models. A natural way to assess the goodness of the model is to estimate its future predictive capability by estimating expected utilities. Instead of just making a point estimate, it is important to obtain the distribution of the expected utility estimate, as it describes the uncertainty in the estimate. The distributions of the expected utility estimates can also be used to compare models, for example, by computing the probability of one model having a better expected utility than some other model. We propose an approach using crossvalidation predictive densities to obtain expected utility estimates and Bayesian bootstrap to obtain samples from their distributions. We also discuss the probabilistic assumptions made and properties of two practical crossvalidation methods, importance sampling and kfold crossvalidation. As illustrative examples, we use MLP neural networks and Gaussian Processes (GP) with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in one toy problem and two challenging realworld problems.
Bayesian Estimation and Testing of Structural Equation Models
 Psychometrika
, 1999
"... The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameter ..."
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Cited by 45 (10 self)
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The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as those based on the maximum likelihood solution, e.g., output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters of underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errorsinvariables model.
Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis Of Survival Data
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1996
"... this paper are motivated and aimed at analyzing some common types of survival data from different medical studies. We will center our attention to the following topics. ..."
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Cited by 44 (1 self)
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this paper are motivated and aimed at analyzing some common types of survival data from different medical studies. We will center our attention to the following topics.