-frequency models, we find that our simple Gaussian VAR forecasts generally produce superior forecasts. Furthermore, we show that, given the theoretically motivated and empirically plausible assumption of normally distributed returns conditional on the realized volatilities, the resulting lognormal-normal mixture

this article is to develop new methods for inference and prediction in a simple class of stochastic volatility models in which logarithm of conditional volatility follows an autoregressive (AR) times series model. Unlike the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and gener- alized

This paper presents a consistent and arbitrage-free multifactor model of the term structure of interest rates in which yields at selected fixed maturities follow a parametric multivariate Markov diffusion process with “stochastic volatility. ” The yield of any zero-coupon bond is taken to be a

This paper explores the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of affine term structure models (ATSMs55). Within the family of ATSMs there is a tradeoff between flexibility in modeling the conditional correlations and volatilities of the risk factors. This trade-off is formalized

are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash

approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we discuss in detail. Hence, for practical purposes, we may treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally

.e., their capital and the margins they are charged, depend on the assets' market liquidity. We show that under certain conditions margins are destabilizing and market liquidity and funding liquidity are mutually reinforcing, leading to liquidity spirals. The model explains the empirically documented features

interval forecasts around point predictions. The insight was that the intervals should be narrow in tranquil times and wide in volatile times, so that the occurrences of observations outside the interval forecast would be spread out over the sample and not come in clusters. An interval forecast that 3

, and on whether exchange rate passthrough rates are endogenous to a country’s macroeconomic conditions. We provide cross-country and time series evidence on both of these issues for the imports of twenty-five OECD countries. Across the OECD and especially within manufacturing industries, there is compelling

Recent studies have suggested that stock markets' volatility has a type of long-range dependence that is not appropriately described by the usual Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. In this paper, different models for describing