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Results 1 - 10
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3,974
Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
, 2002
"... this paper is built. First, although raw returns are clearly leptokurtic, returns standardized by realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Second, although the distributions of realized volatilities are clearly right-skewed, the distributions of the logarithms of realized volatilities are a ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 549 (50 self)
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-frequency models, we find that our simple Gaussian VAR forecasts generally produce superior forecasts. Furthermore, we show that, given the theoretically motivated and empirically plausible assumption of normally distributed returns conditional on the realized volatilities, the resulting lognormal-normal mixture
Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models
, 1994
"... this article is to develop new methods for inference and prediction in a simple class of stochastic volatility models in which logarithm of conditional volatility follows an autoregressive (AR) times series model. Unlike the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and gener- alized ARCH ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 601 (26 self)
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this article is to develop new methods for inference and prediction in a simple class of stochastic volatility models in which logarithm of conditional volatility follows an autoregressive (AR) times series model. Unlike the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and gener- alized
Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models
- JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 2000
"... This paper explores the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of affine term structure models (ATSMs55). Within the family of ATSMs there is a tradeoff between flexibility in modeling the conditional correlations and volatilities of the risk factors. This trade-off is formalized by ou ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 596 (36 self)
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This paper explores the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of affine term structure models (ATSMs55). Within the family of ATSMs there is a tradeoff between flexibility in modeling the conditional correlations and volatilities of the risk factors. This trade-off is formalized
A yield-factor model of interest rates
- Math. Finance
, 1996
"... This paper presents a consistent and arbitrage-free multifactor model of the term structure of interest rates in which yields at selected fixed maturities follow a parametric multivariate Markov diffusion process with “stochastic volatility. ” The yield of any zero-coupon bond is taken to be a matur ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 665 (23 self)
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This paper presents a consistent and arbitrage-free multifactor model of the term structure of interest rates in which yields at selected fixed maturities follow a parametric multivariate Markov diffusion process with “stochastic volatility. ” The yield of any zero-coupon bond is taken to be a
No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-Movements
- Journal of Finance
, 2001
"... Heteroscedasticity biases tests for contagion based on correlation coefficients. When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market co-movement after a shock to one country, previous work suggests contagion occurred during recent crises. This paper shows that correlation coefficients are ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 485 (15 self)
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are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash
The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility,
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 2001
"... Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire decade. Our estimates, termed realized volatilities and correlations, are not only model-free, but also approximatel ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 333 (29 self)
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approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we discuss in detail. Hence, for practical purposes, we may treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally
Market liquidity and funding liquidity.
, 2009
"... Abstract We provide a model that links a assets' market liquidity -i.e., the ease of trading it -and traders' funding liquidity -i.e., their availability of funds. Traders provide market liquidity and their ability to do so depends on their funding. Conversely, traders' funding, i.e. ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 440 (13 self)
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.e., their capital and the margins they are charged, depend on the assets' market liquidity. We show that under certain conditions margins are destabilizing and market liquidity and funding liquidity are mutually reinforcing, leading to liquidity spirals. The model explains the empirically documented features
Evaluating Interval Forecasts
- International Economic Review
, 1997
"... This paper is intended to address the deficiency by clearly defining what is meant by a "good" interval forecast, and describing how to test if a given interval forecast deserves the label "good". One of the motivations of Engle's (1982) classic paper was to form dynamic int ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 364 (11 self)
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interval forecasts around point predictions. The insight was that the intervals should be narrow in tranquil times and wide in volatile times, so that the occurrences of observations outside the interval forecast would be spread out over the sample and not come in clusters. An interval forecast that 3
Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or MICRO PHENOMENON
- WORKING PAPER, IESE BUSINESS SCHOOL AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF
, 2002
"... Exchange rate regime optimality, as well as monetary policy effectiveness, depends on the tightness of the link between exchange rate movements and import prices. Recent debates hinge on whether producer-currency-pricing (PCP) or local currency pricing (LCP) of imports is more prevalent, and on whet ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 325 (14 self)
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, and on whether exchange rate passthrough rates are endogenous to a country’s macroeconomic conditions. We provide cross-country and time series evidence on both of these issues for the imports of twenty-five OECD countries. Across the OECD and especially within manufacturing industries, there is compelling
On the Detection and Estimation of Long Memory in Stochastic Volatility
, 1995
"... Recent studies have suggested that stock markets' volatility has a type of long-range dependence that is not appropriately described by the usual Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. In this paper, different models for describing ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 214 (6 self)
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Recent studies have suggested that stock markets' volatility has a type of long-range dependence that is not appropriately described by the usual Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. In this paper, different models for describing
Results 1 - 10
of
3,974
