This study compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and trade-weighted dollar

This paper presents evidence that “social capital ” matters for measurable economic performance, using indicators of trust and civic norms from the World Values Surveys for a sample of 29 market economies. Memberships in formal groups—Putnam’s measure of social capital—is not associated with trust

We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime-switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a

develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed nancial markets. We nd this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. We show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality. (JEL O4, F3, G1) A large literature, dating at least

, optimizing application-specific routing metrics. Results from two sets of measurements of a working RON deployed at sites scattered across the Internet demonstrate the benefits of our architecture. For instance, over a 64-hour sampling period in March 2001 across a twelve-node RON, there were 32 significant

sample of countries over the last 30 years.

similar. The firstest (qf) is developed under the assumption that certain components of the process have a finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) representation, and the nuisance parameters are handled by estimating this VAR. The second test (q,) entails computing the eigenvalues of a corrected sample

regularity in a large sample of 92 countries spanning the past four decades, and show that it holds across regions, time periods, income levels, and growth rates. We next ask whether the factors that explain cross-country differences in growth rates of average incomes have differential effects on the poorest

1980 and 1995 an internationally diversified portfolio of past medium-term Winners outperforms a portfolio of medium-term Losers after correcting for risk by more than one percent per month. Return continuation is present in all twelve sample countries and lasts on average for about one year

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy