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Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions by
, 2012
"... The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly ..."
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Cited by 2 (0 self)
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report the true subjective probability of a binary event. Alternatively, one must carefully calibrate inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have to report the same probability
A COMPARISON OF AGGREGATION METHODS OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS BY
"... ii One of the goals of psychological research on subjective judgments is to develop procedures that can improve judgment aggregation quality. The need to aggregate various judgments arises since in many cases the decision maker is uncertain about the possible outcomes of his decisions solicits sugge ..."
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suggestions from multiple advisors. In this paper, we study the quality of aggregation of multiple subjective probability distributions of future temperatures, using data collected by Abbas, Budescu, Yu and Haggerty (2008), as a function of 4 factors – the elicitation method (Fixed Probability versus Fixed
TO ITS EXPLANATION WITH TRUNCATION OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF PROSPECTS
"... This research presents entrepreneuring as a puzzle where entrepreneurs venture at a riskreturn level that is worse than that of the private equity index and much worse than the public equity index. Under subjective rationality, we explain this puzzle by the possibility that entrepreneurs confi gure ..."
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This research presents entrepreneuring as a puzzle where entrepreneurs venture at a riskreturn level that is worse than that of the private equity index and much worse than the public equity index. Under subjective rationality, we explain this puzzle by the possibility that entrepreneurs confi
Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters
 J U L YT H E E CONOM I C J O U RN A L The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society
, 2008
"... We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of for ..."
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Cited by 51 (1 self)
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We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies
Games with Incomplete Information Played by 'Bayesian' Players, IIII
 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
, 1967
"... The paper develops a new theory for the analysis of games with incomplete information where the players are uncertain about some important parameters of the game situation, such as the payoff functions, the strategies available to various players, the information other players have about the game, e ..."
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Cited by 787 (2 self)
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, etc However, each player has a subjective probability distribution over the alternative possibibties In most of the paper it is assumed that these probability distributions entertained by the different players are mutually "consistent", in the sense that they can be regarded as conditional
Approximating discrete probability distributions with dependence trees
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY
, 1968
"... A method is presented to approximate optimally an ndimensional discrete probability distribution by a product of secondorder distributions, or the distribution of the firstorder tree dependence. The problem is to find an optimum set of n1 first order dependence relationship among the n variables ..."
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Cited by 881 (0 self)
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A method is presented to approximate optimally an ndimensional discrete probability distribution by a product of secondorder distributions, or the distribution of the firstorder tree dependence. The problem is to find an optimum set of n1 first order dependence relationship among the n
Distributional Clustering Of English Words
 In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics
, 1993
"... We describe and evaluate experimentally a method for clustering words according to their dis tribution in particular syntactic contexts. Words are represented by the relative frequency distributions of contexts in which they appear, and relative entropy between those distributions is used as the si ..."
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Cited by 629 (27 self)
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as the similarity measure for clustering. Clusters are represented by average context distributions derived from the given words according to their probabilities of cluster membership. In many cases, the clusters can be thought of as encoding coarse sense distinctions. Deterministic annealing is used to find lowest
Estimating the Support of a HighDimensional Distribution
, 1999
"... Suppose you are given some dataset drawn from an underlying probability distribution P and you want to estimate a "simple" subset S of input space such that the probability that a test point drawn from P lies outside of S is bounded by some a priori specified between 0 and 1. We propo ..."
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Cited by 783 (29 self)
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Suppose you are given some dataset drawn from an underlying probability distribution P and you want to estimate a "simple" subset S of input space such that the probability that a test point drawn from P lies outside of S is bounded by some a priori specified between 0 and 1. We
Results 1  10
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77,239