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Keywords: Probability matching
"... a b s t r a c t Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of peo ple’s well ..."
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a b s t r a c t Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of peo ple’s well
Probability Matching and Reinforcement Learning∗
, 2011
"... Probability matching occurs when an action is chosen with a frequency equivalent to the probability of that action being the best choice. This suboptimal behavior has been reported repeatedly by psychologist and experimental economist. We provide an evolutionary foundation for this phenomenon by sh ..."
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Probability matching occurs when an action is chosen with a frequency equivalent to the probability of that action being the best choice. This suboptimal behavior has been reported repeatedly by psychologist and experimental economist. We provide an evolutionary foundation for this phenomenon
Reinforcement Learning by Probability Matching
 In Touretzky et al
, 1996
"... We present a new algorithm for associative reinforcement learning. The algorithm is based upon the idea of matching a network's output probability with a probability distribution derived from the environment's reward signal. This Probability Matching algorithm is shown to perform faster an ..."
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We present a new algorithm for associative reinforcement learning. The algorithm is based upon the idea of matching a network's output probability with a probability distribution derived from the environment's reward signal. This Probability Matching algorithm is shown to perform faster
On the uniqueness of probability matching priors
"... Probability matching priors are priors for which Bayesian and frequentist inference, in the form of posterior quantiles, or confidence intervals, agree to some order of approximation. These priors are constructed by solving a first order partial differential equation, that may be difficult to solve. ..."
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Probability matching priors are priors for which Bayesian and frequentist inference, in the form of posterior quantiles, or confidence intervals, agree to some order of approximation. These priors are constructed by solving a first order partial differential equation, that may be difficult to solve
ISO Probability Matching
, 1992
"... This paper reports an experiment in which subjects were asked to predict which of two random events would occur in a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In some treatments, financial rewards and/or penalties were used to motivate subject's choices, and in another treatment, each subject was simply to ..."
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to engage in "probability matching", i.e. predicting the more likely event about as often as it occurs on average, e.g., 3/4 of the time. About 30 years ago, Sidney Siegel and his coauthors replicated the probability matching results that had been reported in the psychology literature in the 1940
On predictive probability matching priors
, 805
"... Abstract: We revisit the question of priors that achieve approximate matching of Bayesian and frequentist predictive probabilities. Such priors may be thought of as providing frequentist calibration of Bayesian prediction or simply ..."
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Abstract: We revisit the question of priors that achieve approximate matching of Bayesian and frequentist predictive probabilities. Such priors may be thought of as providing frequentist calibration of Bayesian prediction or simply
An Economist's Perspective on Probability Matching
, 1998
"... . The experimental phenomenon known as "probability matching" is often offered as evidence in support of adaptive learning models and against the idea that people maximise their expected utility. Recent interest in dynamicbased equilibrium theories means the term reappears in Economics. ..."
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. The experimental phenomenon known as "probability matching" is often offered as evidence in support of adaptive learning models and against the idea that people maximise their expected utility. Recent interest in dynamicbased equilibrium theories means the term reappears in Economics
La revue canadienne de statistique On probability matching priors
"... probability matching prior; tail probability approximation. ..."
Probabilitymatching in 10monthold infants
"... Evidence from the probability learning literature indicates that when presented with simple situations that require making predictions, adults tend to probability match whereas children are likely to show maximization (Stevenson & Weir, 1959; Weir, 1964). The reason for this developmental differ ..."
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Evidence from the probability learning literature indicates that when presented with simple situations that require making predictions, adults tend to probability match whereas children are likely to show maximization (Stevenson & Weir, 1959; Weir, 1964). The reason for this developmental
Results 1  10
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