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Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have we Learned and to What End?
, 1998
"... This paper reviews recent research that grapples with the question: What happens after an exogenous shock to monetary policy? We argue that this question is interesting because it lies at the center of a particular approach to assessing the empirical plausibility of structural economic models that c ..."
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Cited by 988 (26 self)
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that can be used to think about systematic changes in monetary policy institutions and rules. The literature has not yet converged on a particular set of assumptions for identifying the effects of an exogenous shock to monetary policy. Nevertheless, there is considerable agreement about the qualitative
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute We are grateful to
"... Abstract This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved thro ..."
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Abstract This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters. JEL codes: C32, E17, F44, F47, O13, Q43
Technical Note on Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples. Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper no
, 2014
"... This technical note is developed as a companion to the paper ‘Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples ’ (Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute working paper no. 189). Taking the workhorse open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) with nominal rigidities under monopoli ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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This technical note is developed as a companion to the paper ‘Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples ’ (Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute working paper no. 189). Taking the workhorse open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) with nominal rigidities under
The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective
- Journal of Economic Literature
, 1999
"... “Having looked at monetary policy from both sides now, I can testify that central banking in practice is as much art as science. Nonetheless, while practicing this dark art, I have always found the science quEite useful.” 2 Alan S. Blinder ..."
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Cited by 1825 (41 self)
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“Having looked at monetary policy from both sides now, I can testify that central banking in practice is as much art as science. Nonetheless, while practicing this dark art, I have always found the science quEite useful.” 2 Alan S. Blinder
Rules, discretion, and reputation in a model of monetary policy
- JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
, 1983
"... In a discretionary regime the monetary authority can print more money and create more inflation than people expect. But, although these inflation surprises can have some benefits, they cannot arise systematically in equilibrium when people understand the policymakor's incentives and form their ..."
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Cited by 812 (9 self)
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In a discretionary regime the monetary authority can print more money and create more inflation than people expect. But, although these inflation surprises can have some benefits, they cannot arise systematically in equilibrium when people understand the policymakor's incentives and form
U.S. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy and the External Finance Premium," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
, 2011
"... I investigate a model of the U.S. economy with nominal rigidities and a financial accelerator mechanism à la Bernanke et al. (1999). I calculate total factor productivity and monetary policy deviations for the U.S. and quantitatively explore the ability of the model to account for the cyclical patte ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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I investigate a model of the U.S. economy with nominal rigidities and a financial accelerator mechanism à la Bernanke et al. (1999). I calculate total factor productivity and monetary policy deviations for the U.S. and quantitatively explore the ability of the model to account for the cyclical
House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle
, 2002
"... I develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices, credit constraints, nominal loans and asset prices. Changes in asset prices modify agents ’ borrowing capacity through collateral value; changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation. Monetary policy shocks move asse ..."
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Cited by 512 (10 self)
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I develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices, credit constraints, nominal loans and asset prices. Changes in asset prices modify agents ’ borrowing capacity through collateral value; changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation. Monetary policy shocks move
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory
- Journal of Economics
, 2000
"... We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker’s appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker ..."
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Cited by 1266 (17 self)
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We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker’s appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
, 2003
"... We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, th ..."
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Cited by 1340 (42 self)
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We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features
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