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Results 1 - 10
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974
Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty
- Cognitive Psychology
, 1999
"... This paper traces, within subjects, the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty. The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory (Tversky & Koehler, 1994; Rottenstreich & Tversky, 1997), a ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 18 (6 self)
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nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty. Fans of professional basketball (N � 50) judged the probability that each of eight teams, four divisions, and two conferences would win the National Basketball Association championship. Additionally, participants rated the relative strength of each team, judged
A randomized protocol for signing contracts
, 1990
"... Two parties, A and B, want to sign a contract C over a communication network. To do so, they must “simultaneously” exchange their commitments to C. Since simultaneous exchange is usually impossible in practice, protocols are needed to approximate simultaneity by exchanging partial commitments in pie ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 599 (11 self)
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in piece by piece manner. During such a protocol, one party or another may have a slight advantage; a “fair” protocol keeps this advantage within acceptable limits. We present a new protocol that is fair in the sense that, at any stage in its execution, the conditional probability that one party cannot
The Strategy Behind Belief Revision: A Matter of Judging Probability or the Use of Mental Models?
"... Research in the field of human reasoning has shown repeatedly that people find it reasonably easy to detect inconsistencies. The question that still remains is how people revise their beliefs to undo these inconsistencies. We report two experiments in which subjects had to make belief revision choic ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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choices on modus ponens (MP) and modus tollens (MT) sets of problems that contained conditionals with different levels of probability. After the final statement of each set, which was stated to be true, they had to decide which of the first two statements they believed more. The results showed
Scene perception: detecting and judging objects undergoing relational violations
, 1982
"... Five classes of relations between an object and its setting can characterize the organization of objects into real-world scenes. The relations are (1) Interposition (objects interrupt their background), (2) Support (objects tend to rest on surfaces), (3) Probability (objects tend to be found in some ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 222 (4 self)
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Five classes of relations between an object and its setting can characterize the organization of objects into real-world scenes. The relations are (1) Interposition (objects interrupt their background), (2) Support (objects tend to rest on surfaces), (3) Probability (objects tend to be found
The enhancement e¤ect in probability judgment
- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, 1997
"... Research has shown that the judged probability of an event depends on the specificity with which the focal and alternative hypotheses are described. In particular, unpacking the components of the focal hypothesis generally increases the judged probability of the focal hypothesis, while unpacking the ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Research has shown that the judged probability of an event depends on the specificity with which the focal and alternative hypotheses are described. In particular, unpacking the components of the focal hypothesis generally increases the judged probability of the focal hypothesis, while unpacking
Judging the probability of representative and unrepresentative unpackings
- In Johanna D. Moore (Ed.), Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 376–380). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
, 2001
"... The hypothesis that category descriptions are interpreted narrowly, in terms of representative instances, is examined by comparing probability judgments for packed descriptions of events to judgments for coextensional unpacked descriptions. The representativeness of the unpacked instance was varied ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 3 (1 self)
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The hypothesis that category descriptions are interpreted narrowly, in terms of representative instances, is examined by comparing probability judgments for packed descriptions of events to judgments for coextensional unpacked descriptions. The representativeness of the unpacked instance was varied
Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability
"... is provided in screen-viewable form for personal use only by members ..."
The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges
- Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
, 2000
"... The average probability estimate of J> 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of condition ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 32 (3 self)
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The average probability estimate of J> 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average
Choice Strategies in Multiple-Cue Probability Learning
"... Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructe ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability
Temporal distance moderates description dependence of subjective probability
- Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
, 2008
"... Abstract Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elicit different judged probabilities. We propose that the temporal proximity of an event moderates the degree of description dependence in probability judgment. According to construal level theory, ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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Abstract Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elicit different judged probabilities. We propose that the temporal proximity of an event moderates the degree of description dependence in probability judgment. According to construal level theory
Results 1 - 10
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974
