This research compares practical methods of forecasting basis, using current market information for wheat, soybeans, corn, and milo (grain sorghum) in Kansas. Though generally not statistically superior, an historical one-year average was optimal for corn, milo, and soybean harvest and post

The equity premium, return on equity minus return on risk-free asset, is expected to be positive. We consider imposing such positivity constraint in local historical average (LHA) in nonparametric kernel regression framework. It is also extended to the semiparametric single index model when

Interest rate forecasts are widely used by economists in the business community, government and forensic applications. Forensic economists practicing in the area of personal injury analysis, however, are as a group unique in their use of unadjusted, long-term averages as the basis for forecasts

return adds the historical average realized excess market returns to the current observed interest rate. While this model explicitly reflects the dependence of the market return on the interest rate, it fails to account for the effect of changes in the level of market risk. Three models of equilibrium

, an equilibrium model which is not an Arrow-Debreu economy will be the one that Simultaneously rationalizes both historically observed large average equity return and the small average risk-free return. 1.

Goyal and Welch (2006) argue that the historical average excess stock return forecasts future excess stock returns better than regressions of excess returns on predictor variables. In this paper we show that many predictive regressions beat the historical average return, once weak restrictions

Since the beginning of the century, feedback interventions (FIs) produced negative—but largely ignored—effects on performance. A meta-analysis (607 effect sizes; 23,663 observations) suggests that FIs improved performance on average (d =.41) but that over '/3 of the FIs decreased perfor

Abstract Source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude (M), surface rupture length, subsurface rupture length, downdip rupture width, rupture area, and maximum and average displacement per event

;104:2746-2753.) Key Words: heart diseases epidemiology prevention For most populations, the last century has witnessed themost dramatic improvements in health in history. Life expectancy at birth has increased from a global average of 46 years in 1950 to 66 years in 1998.1 The health status and disease profile

investigate lack publicly traded options. 11 Thus, we are forced to use the best available substitute: changes in the VIX index, VIX t , which corresponds to a weighted average of eight implied volatilities of near-the-money options on the OEX (S&P 100) index. 12 These data are provided by the Chicago