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Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics

by Geir Evensen - J. Geophys. Res , 1994
"... . A new sequential data assimilation method is discussed. It is based on forecasting the error statistics using Monte Carlo methods, a better alternative than solving the traditional and computationally extremely demanding approximate error covariance equation used in the extended Kalman filter. The ..."
Abstract - Cited by 800 (23 self) - Add to MetaCart
. A new sequential data assimilation method is discussed. It is based on forecasting the error statistics using Monte Carlo methods, a better alternative than solving the traditional and computationally extremely demanding approximate error covariance equation used in the extended Kalman filter

Approximate nonlinear forecasting methods

by Halbert White - Handbook of Economic Forecasting , 2006
"... We review key aspects of forecasting using nonlinear models. Because economic models are typically misspecified, the resulting forecasts provide only an approximation to the best possible forecast. Although it is in principle possible to obtain superior approximations to the optimal forecast using n ..."
Abstract - Cited by 26 (8 self) - Add to MetaCart
of methods (QuickNet) that achieves the benefits of using a forecasting model that is nonlinear in the predictors while avoiding or mitigating the other challenges to the use of nonlinear forecasting methods. 1.

Evaluating Forecasting Methods

by J. Scott, Armstrong Norwell, Ma Kluwer, Academic Publishers, J. Scott Armstrong
"... Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and ..."
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Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs

I INTEGRATION OF FORECASTING METHODS

by Theodore J Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn, Agent Modelling X X, Bibliometrics X X, Statistical Modelling X X
"... This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0 (CD-ROM) published by the American Council for the United Nations University with in the framework of the Millennium Project. Following the extensive discussion of twenty five forecasting methods or categories of m ..."
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This paper represents the closing chapter of Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0 (CD-ROM) published by the American Council for the United Nations University with in the framework of the Millennium Project. Following the extensive discussion of twenty five forecasting methods or categories

Forecasting methods for conflict situations

by J. Scott Armstrong , 1987
"... In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands, employed 51 per cent of the labor force, had a monopoly on all wool exports, and operated the steamship ..."
Abstract - Cited by 12 (8 self) - Add to MetaCart
on alternative procedures that can be used to forecast outcomes in conflict situations. I first define what is meant here by conflict situations. Next, I describe alternative forecasting methods. This is followed by a presentation of hypotheses on which method is more appropriate. The evidence is reviewed in two

Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability

by Eugenia Kalnay , 2003
"... Numerical weather prediction (NWP) now provides major guidance in our daily weather forecast. The accuracy of NWP models has improved steadily since the first successful experiment made by Charney, Fj!rtoft and von Neuman (1950). During the past 50 years, a large number of technical papers and repor ..."
Abstract - Cited by 626 (33 self) - Add to MetaCart
years much impressive progress has been made in all aspects of NWP, including the success in model initialization and ensemble forecasts. Eugenia Kalnay’s recent book covers for the first time in the long history of NWP, not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas

Business forecasting methods

by Rob J Hyndman , 2009
"... Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and go ..."
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Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning

2001a), “Evaluating forecasting methods

by J. Scott Armstrong - Principles of Forecasting
"... I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy, ” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do, ” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judg ..."
Abstract - Cited by 29 (12 self) - Add to MetaCart
I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy, ” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do, ” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured

Forecasting methods applied to engineering

by Áron Szász-gábor
"... management ..."
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management

Evaluating Interval Forecasts

by Peter F. Christoffersen, Anil Bera, Jeremy Berkowitz, Tim Bollerslev, Frank Diebold, Lorenzo Giorgianni, Jin Hahn, Jose Lopez, Roberto Mariano - International Economic Review , 1997
"... This paper is intended to address the deficiency by clearly defining what is meant by a "good" interval forecast, and describing how to test if a given interval forecast deserves the label "good". One of the motivations of Engle's (1982) classic paper was to form dynamic int ..."
Abstract - Cited by 364 (11 self) - Add to MetaCart
by Diebold and Mariano (1995). This paper can also be seen as establishing a formal framework for the ideas suggested in Granger, White and Kamstra (1989). Recently, financial market participants have shown increasing interest in interval forecasts as measures of uncertainty. Thus, we apply our methods
Results 1 - 10 of 7,435