We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker’s appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy

The twelfth century rabbinic scholar Maimonides proposed a maximum class size of 40. This same maximum induces a nonlinear and nonmonotonic relation-ship between grade enrollment and class size in Israeli public schools today. Maimonides’ rule of 40 is used here to construct instrumental variables

Estimated policy rules describe how monetary policy has responded in the past to key economic indicators. Based on economic conditions and policy objectives, estimated rules can be used to evaluate past policy decisions and the outcomes of those decisions. In conjunction with “optimal ” rules

We are given a large database of customer transactions. Each transaction consists of items purchased by a customer in a visit. We present an efficient algorithm that generates all significant association rules between items in the database. The algorithm incorporates buffer management and novel

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining income levels around the world, using recently developed instrumental variables for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions “trumps” everything else. Once institutions

. An experimental comparison of various classifier combination schemes demonstrates that the combination rule developed under the most restrictive assumptions—the sum rule—outperforms other classifier combinations schemes. A sensitivity analysis of the various schemes to estimation errors is carried out to show

and ignore difficulties associated with data revisions. This paper examines the magnitude of these informational problems using Taylor's rule as an example. First, I construct a database of current quarter estimates/forecasts of the quantities required by the rule based only on information available

in the tail of the distribution. In particular, standard methods such as least-squares fitting are known to produce systematically biased estimates of parameters for power-law distributions and should not be used in most circumstances. Here we describe statistical techniques for making accurate parameter

consistent equations for the coding rules X → ˜ X and ˜ X → Y. Solutions to these equations can be found by a convergent re–estimation method that generalizes the Blahut–Arimoto algorithm. Our variational principle provides a surprisingly rich framework for discussing a variety of problems in signal

if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather than G ̸ = F. It is strictly proper if the maximum is unique. In prediction problems, proper scoring rules encourage the forecaster to make careful assessments and to be honest. In estimation problems, strictly proper scoring rules provide