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Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

by Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold, Paul Labys , 2002
"... this paper is built. First, although raw returns are clearly leptokurtic, returns standardized by realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Second, although the distributions of realized volatilities are clearly right-skewed, the distributions of the logarithms of realized volatilities are a ..."
Abstract - Cited by 549 (50 self) - Add to MetaCart
this paper is built. First, although raw returns are clearly leptokurtic, returns standardized by realized volatilities are approximately Gaussian. Second, although the distributions of realized volatilities are clearly right-skewed, the distributions of the logarithms of realized volatilities

Improved methods for tests of long-run abnormal stock returns

by John D. Lyon, Brad M. Barber, Chih-ling Tsai, Raghu Rau, Jay Ritter, René Stulz, Brett Trueman, Ralph Walkling - Journal of Finance , 1999
"... We analyze tests for long-run abnormal returns and document that two approaches yield well-specified test statistics in random samples. The first uses a traditional event study framework and buy-and-hold abnormal returns calculated using carefully constructed reference portfolios. Inference is based ..."
Abstract - Cited by 375 (12 self) - Add to MetaCart
is based on either a skewnessadjusted t-statistic or the empirically generated distribution of long-run abnormal returns. The second approach is based on calculation of mean monthly abnormal returns using calendar-time portfolios and a time-series t-statistic. Though both approaches perform well in random

Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: further empirical evidence

by Donald B. Keim - Journal of Financial Economics , 1983
"... This study examines, month-by-month, the empirical relation between abnormal returns and market value of NYSE and AMEX common stocks. Evidence is provided that daily abnormal return distributions in January have large means relative to the remaining eleven months, and that the relation between abnor ..."
Abstract - Cited by 173 (2 self) - Add to MetaCart
This study examines, month-by-month, the empirical relation between abnormal returns and market value of NYSE and AMEX common stocks. Evidence is provided that daily abnormal return distributions in January have large means relative to the remaining eleven months, and that the relation between

The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility,

by Torben G Andersen , Francis X Diebold , Tim Bollerslev , Paul Labys - Journal of the American Statistical Association , 2001
"... Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire decade. Our estimates, termed realized volatilities and correlations, are not only model-free, but also approximatel ..."
Abstract - Cited by 333 (29 self) - Add to MetaCart
Using high-frequency data on deutschemark and yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation that cover an entire decade. Our estimates, termed realized volatilities and correlations, are not only model-free, but also

The distribution of realized stock return volatility

by Torben G. Andersen , Tim Bollerslev , Francis X. Diebold , Heiko Ebens , 2001
"... We examine "realized" daily equity return volatilities and correlations obtained from high-frequency intraday transaction prices on individual stocks in the Dow Jones ..."
Abstract - Cited by 243 (22 self) - Add to MetaCart
We examine "realized" daily equity return volatilities and correlations obtained from high-frequency intraday transaction prices on individual stocks in the Dow Jones

Estimation of Tail-Related Risk Measures for Heteroscedastic Financial Time Series: an Extreme Value Approach

by Alexander J. McNeil, RĂ¼diger Frey - Journal of Empirical Finance , 1998
"... We propose a method for estimating VaR and related risk measures describing the tail of the conditional distribution of a heteroscedastic financial return series. Our approach combines pseudo-maximum-likelihood fitting of GARCH models to estimate the current volatility and extreme value theory (EVT) ..."
Abstract - Cited by 239 (6 self) - Add to MetaCart
We propose a method for estimating VaR and related risk measures describing the tail of the conditional distribution of a heteroscedastic financial return series. Our approach combines pseudo-maximum-likelihood fitting of GARCH models to estimate the current volatility and extreme value theory (EVT

Hyperbolic Distributions in Finance

by Ernst Eberlein , Ulrich Keller - BERNOULLI , 1995
"... Distributional assumptions for the returns on the underlying assets play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Based on a data set consisting of daily prices of the 30 DAX shares over a three-year period, we investigate the distributional form of compound returns. After perform ..."
Abstract - Cited by 172 (14 self) - Add to MetaCart
Distributional assumptions for the returns on the underlying assets play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Based on a data set consisting of daily prices of the 30 DAX shares over a three-year period, we investigate the distributional form of compound returns. After

On the Detection and Estimation of Long Memory in Stochastic Volatility

by F. Jay Breidt, Nuno Crato, Pedro De Lima , 1995
"... Recent studies have suggested that stock markets' volatility has a type of long-range dependence that is not appropriately described by the usual Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. In this paper, different models for describing ..."
Abstract - Cited by 214 (6 self) - Add to MetaCart
for the parameters of this LMSV model are obtained by maximizing the spectral likelihood. The distribution of the estimators is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The LMSV is applied to daily stock market returns providing an improved description of the volatility behavior. In order to assess the empirical

Can investors profit from the prophets? Security analyst recommendations and stock returns

by Brad Barber, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen Mcnichols, Brett Trueman - Journal of Finance , 2001
"... We document that purchasing ~selling short! stocks with the most ~least! favorable consensus recommendations, in conjunction with daily portfolio rebalancing and a timely response to recommendation changes, yield annual abnormal gross returns greater than four percent. Less frequent portfolio rebala ..."
Abstract - Cited by 137 (5 self) - Add to MetaCart
We document that purchasing ~selling short! stocks with the most ~least! favorable consensus recommendations, in conjunction with daily portfolio rebalancing and a timely response to recommendation changes, yield annual abnormal gross returns greater than four percent. Less frequent portfolio

Daily Stock Returns, Non-Normality and Hypothesis Testing

by George S. Ford, I. Methodology
"... Daily stock returns typically have non-normal and asymmetric distributions, potentially leading to problems with hypothesis testing based on reported probability statistics from regression analysis (Fama 1976; Brooks 2002). While daily stock return data for many years is readily available, recent st ..."
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Daily stock returns typically have non-normal and asymmetric distributions, potentially leading to problems with hypothesis testing based on reported probability statistics from regression analysis (Fama 1976; Brooks 2002). While daily stock return data for many years is readily available, recent
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