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On estimating the expected return on the market -- an exploratory investigation

by Robert C. Merton - JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS , 1980
"... The expected market return is a number frequently required for the solution of many investment and corporate tinance problems, but by comparison with other tinancial variables, there has been little research on estimating this expected return. Current practice for estimating the expected market retu ..."
Abstract - Cited by 490 (3 self) - Add to MetaCart
return adds the historical average realized excess market returns to the current observed interest rate. While this model explicitly reflects the dependence of the market return on the interest rate, it fails to account for the effect of changes in the level of market risk. Three models of equilibrium

A direct approach to false discovery rates

by John D. Storey , 2002
"... Summary. Multiple-hypothesis testing involves guarding against much more complicated errors than single-hypothesis testing. Whereas we typically control the type I error rate for a single-hypothesis test, a compound error rate is controlled for multiple-hypothesis tests. For example, controlling the ..."
Abstract - Cited by 775 (14 self) - Add to MetaCart
the false discovery rate FDR traditionally involves intricate sequential p-value rejection methods based on the observed data. Whereas a sequential p-value method fixes the error rate and estimates its corresponding rejection region, we propose the opposite approach—we fix the rejection region

Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector

by Bengt Holmstrom, Jean Tirole - Quarterly Journal of Economics , 1997
"... We study an incentive model of ®nancial intermediation in which ®rms as well as intermediaries are capital constrained. We analyze how the distribution of wealth across ®rms, intermediaries, and uninformed investors affects investment, interest rates, and the intensity of monitoring. We show that al ..."
Abstract - Cited by 547 (7 self) - Add to MetaCart
We study an incentive model of ®nancial intermediation in which ®rms as well as intermediaries are capital constrained. We analyze how the distribution of wealth across ®rms, intermediaries, and uninformed investors affects investment, interest rates, and the intensity of monitoring. We show

Inflation and Growth

by Robert J. Barro , 1996
"... In recent years, many central banks have placed increased emphasis on price stability. Monetary policy—whether expressed in terms of interest rates or growth of monetary aggregates—has been increasingly geared toward the achievement of low and stable inflation. Central bankers and most other obs ..."
Abstract - Cited by 3577 (23 self) - Add to MetaCart
In recent years, many central banks have placed increased emphasis on price stability. Monetary policy—whether expressed in terms of interest rates or growth of monetary aggregates—has been increasingly geared toward the achievement of low and stable inflation. Central bankers and most other

PDDL2.1: An Extension to PDDL for Expressing Temporal Planning Domains

by Maria Fox, Derek Long , 2003
"... In recent years research in the planning community has moved increasingly towards application of planners to realistic problems involving both time and many types of resources. For example, interest in planning demonstrated by the space research community has inspired work in observation scheduling, ..."
Abstract - Cited by 609 (41 self) - Add to MetaCart
In recent years research in the planning community has moved increasingly towards application of planners to realistic problems involving both time and many types of resources. For example, interest in planning demonstrated by the space research community has inspired work in observation scheduling

Paml 4: Phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood

by Ziheng Yang - Mol. Biol. Evol , 2007
"... PAML, currently in version 4, is a package of programs for phylogenetic analyses of DNA and protein sequences using maximum likelihood (ML). The programs may be used to compare and test phylogenetic trees, but their main strengths lie in the rich repertoire of evolutionary models implemented, which ..."
Abstract - Cited by 1201 (28 self) - Add to MetaCart
can be used to estimate parameters in models of sequence evolution and to test interesting biological hypotheses. Uses of the programs include estimation of synonymous and nonsynonymous rates (dN and dS) between two protein-coding DNA sequences, inference of positive Darwinian selection through

Loopy belief propagation for approximate inference: An empirical study. In:

by Kevin P Murphy , Yair Weiss , Michael I Jordan - Proceedings of Uncertainty in AI, , 1999
"... Abstract Recently, researchers have demonstrated that "loopy belief propagation" -the use of Pearl's polytree algorithm in a Bayesian network with loops -can perform well in the context of error-correcting codes. The most dramatic instance of this is the near Shannon-limit performanc ..."
Abstract - Cited by 676 (15 self) - Add to MetaCart
with a single loop • Unless all the conditional probabilities are deter ministic, belief propagation will converge. • There is an analytic expression relating the cor rect marginals to the loopy marginals. The ap proximation error is related to the convergence rate of the messages -the faster

Testing for Common Trends

by James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson - Journal of the American Statistical Association , 1988
"... Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) in a multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix ..."
Abstract - Cited by 464 (7 self) - Add to MetaCart
first-order autocorrelation matrix, where the correction is essentially a sum of the autocovariance matrices. Previous researchers have found that U.S. postwar interest rates, taken individually, appear to be integrated of order 1. In addition, the theory of the term structure implies that yields

Handling Churn in a DHT

by Sean Rhea, Dennis Geels, Timothy Roscoe, John Kubiatowicz - In Proceedings of the USENIX Annual Technical Conference , 2004
"... This paper addresses the problem of churn---the continuous process of node arrival and departure---in distributed hash tables (DHTs). We argue that DHTs should perform lookups quickly and consistently under churn rates at least as high as those observed in deployed P2P systems such as Kazaa. We then ..."
Abstract - Cited by 450 (22 self) - Add to MetaCart
This paper addresses the problem of churn---the continuous process of node arrival and departure---in distributed hash tables (DHTs). We argue that DHTs should perform lookups quickly and consistently under churn rates at least as high as those observed in deployed P2P systems such as Kazaa. We

The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes.

by Pierre Collin-Dufresne , Robert S Goldstein , J Spencer Martin , Gurdip Bakshi , Greg Bauer , Dave Brown , Francesca Carrieri , Peter Christoffersen , Susan Christoffersen , Greg Duffee , Darrell Duffie , Vihang Errunza , Gifford Fong , Mike Gallmeyer , Laurent Gauthier , Rick Green , John Griffin , Jean Helwege , Kris Jacobs , Chris Jones , Andrew Karolyi , Dilip Madan , David Mauer , Erwan Morellec , Federico Nardari , N R Prabhala , Tony Sanders , Sergei Sarkissian , Bill Schwert , Ken Singleton , Chester Spatt , René Stulz - Journal of Finance , 2001
"... ABSTRACT Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are ..."
Abstract - Cited by 422 (2 self) - Add to MetaCart
like Treasury bonds, and (2) low-grade bonds are more sensitive to stock returns. The implications of these studies may be limited in many situations of interest, however. For example, hedge funds often take highly levered positions in corporate bonds while hedging away interest rate risk by shorting
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