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Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds
, 1999
"... This article presents convenient reducedform models of the valuation of contingent claims subject to default risk, focusing on applications to the term structure of interest rates for corporate or sovereign bonds. Examples include the valuation of a creditspread option ..."
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Cited by 651 (34 self)
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This article presents convenient reducedform models of the valuation of contingent claims subject to default risk, focusing on applications to the term structure of interest rates for corporate or sovereign bonds. Examples include the valuation of a creditspread option
CONDENSATION  conditional density propagation for visual tracking
 International Journal of Computer Vision
, 1998
"... The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimodal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses "factored sampling", previously appli ..."
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Cited by 1499 (12 self)
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The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimodal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses "factored sampling", previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set. Condensation uses learned dynamical models, together with visual observations, to propagate the random set over time. The result is highly robust tracking of agile motion. Notwithstanding the use of stochastic methods, the algorithm runs in near realtime. Contents 1 Tracking curves in clutter 2 2 Discretetime propagation of state density 3 3 Factored sampling 6 4 The Condensation algorithm 8 5 Stochastic dynamical models for curve motion 10 6 Observation model 13 7 Applying the Condensation algorithm to videostreams 17 8 Conclusions 26 A Nonline...
The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies
 American Economic Review
, 2005
"... This paper argues that a broad class of search models cannot generate the observed businesscyclefrequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the U.S., the vacancyunemployment ratio is 20 times as volatile as average labor productivity ..."
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Cited by 839 (20 self)
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This paper argues that a broad class of search models cannot generate the observed businesscyclefrequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the U.S., the vacancyunemployment ratio is 20 times as volatile as average labor productivity, while under weak assumptions, search models predict that the vacancyunemployment ratio and labor productivity have nearly the same variance. I establish this claim both using analytical comparative statics in a very general deterministic search model and using simulations of a stochastic version of the model. I show that a shock that changes average labor productivity primarily alters the present value of wages, generating only a small movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve (unemploymentvacancy locus). A shock to the job destruction rate generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the shock is only slightly amplified and the model exhibits virtually no propagation. I reconcile these findings with an existing literature and argue that the source of the model’s failure is lack of wage rigidity, a consequence of the assumption that wages are determined by Nash bargaining. ∗ This is a major revision of ‘Equilibrium Unemployment Fluctuations’. I thank Daron Acemoglu, Olivier
Efficient similarity search in sequence databases
, 1994
"... We propose an indexing method for time sequences for processing similarity queries. We use the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) to map time sequences to the frequency domain, the crucial observation being that, for most sequences of practical interest, only the first few frequencies are strong. Anot ..."
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Cited by 505 (21 self)
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We propose an indexing method for time sequences for processing similarity queries. We use the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) to map time sequences to the frequency domain, the crucial observation being that, for most sequences of practical interest, only the first few frequencies are strong. Another important observation is Parseval's theorem, which specifies that the Fourier transform preserves the Euclidean distance in the time or frequency domain. Having thus mapped sequences to a lowerdimensionality space by using only the first few Fourier coe cients, we use Rtrees to index the sequences and e ciently answer similarity queries. We provide experimental results which show that our method is superior to search based on sequential scanning. Our experiments show that a few coefficients (13) are adequate to provide good performance. The performance gain of our method increases with the number and length of sequences.
Analysis, Modeling and Generation of SelfSimilar VBR Video Traffic
, 1994
"... We present a detailed statistical analysis of a 2hour long empirical sample of VBR video. The sample was obtained by applying a simple intraframe video compression code to an action movie. The main findings of our analysis are (1) the tail behavior of the marginal bandwidth distribution can be accu ..."
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Cited by 546 (6 self)
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We present a detailed statistical analysis of a 2hour long empirical sample of VBR video. The sample was obtained by applying a simple intraframe video compression code to an action movie. The main findings of our analysis are (1) the tail behavior of the marginal bandwidth distribution can be accurately described using "heavytailed" distributions (e.g., Pareto); (2) the autocorrelation of the VBR video sequence decays hyperbolically (equivalent to longrange dependence) and can be modeled using selfsimilar processes. We combine our findings in a new (nonMarkovian) source model for VBR video and present an algorithm for generating synthetic traffic. Tracedriven simulations show that statistical multiplexing results in significant bandwidth efficiency even when longrange dependence is present. Simulations of our source model show longrange dependence and heavytailed marginals to be important components which are not accounted for in currently used VBR video traffic models. 1 I...
A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Cointegrated Systems
 ECONOMETRICA
, 1993
"... Efficient estimators of cointegrating vectors are presented for systems involving deterministic components and variables of differing, higher orders of integration. The estimators are computed using GLS or OLS, and Wald Statistics constructed from these estimators have asymptotic x2 distributions. T ..."
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Cited by 507 (3 self)
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Efficient estimators of cointegrating vectors are presented for systems involving deterministic components and variables of differing, higher orders of integration. The estimators are computed using GLS or OLS, and Wald Statistics constructed from these estimators have asymptotic x2 distributions. These and previously proposed estimators of cointegrating vectors are used to study longrun U.S. money (Ml) demand. Ml demand is found to be stable over 19001989; the 95 % confidence intervals for the income elasticity and interest rate semielasticity are (.88,1.06) and (.13,.08), respectively. Estimates based on the postwar data alone, however, are unstable, with variances which indicate substantial sampling uncertainty.
Detection of Abrupt Changes: Theory and Application
 HTTP://PEOPLE.IRISA.FR/MICHELE.BASSEVILLE/KNIGA/
, 1993
"... ..."
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