by Ian Mitchell, Robert Noyce Independently Hit
http://www-sccm.stanford.edu/Students/mitchell/moore21.ps
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Abstract:
on the "monolithic idea " of putting both transistors and the wires that connect them onto a single substrate, leading manufacturers had moved from placing two transistors on a single chip to around sixty per chip [24]. Gordon Moore made a prediction, admittedly tongue-in-cheek, that this exponential increase in the number of components on a single chip would continue. That comment has become more than a prediction, as the name Moore's law would suggest. For more than three decades it closely matched the rising integration of chip technology: density doubled every 18 months. The abilities of computers---not just their number crunching power, but the power of related technologies such as storage and communication---have undergone change astounding to the people who must live through it, but change that, with the benefit of hindsight, seems relatively straightforward to predict by exponential growth (like Moore's law) in capability. For a look into the next twenty years, though, we lack hindsight. Can we forecast the power of computers in 2017 by following Moore's law? This report
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