Theil, H (1958), Economic forecasts and policy. North-Holland. Home/Search Document Not in Database Summary Related Articles Check |
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The Output Gap: Measurement, Comparisons and Assessment - Claus, Conway, Scott (2000) (Correct)
....presence of uncertainty. A standard result in the literature on monetary policy rules is that of certainty equivalence : given a linear model in which the policymaker has quadratic preferences, the addition of uncorrelated errors to variables in the model will not affect the optimal policy choice (Theil 1958). Uncertainty of this type is often referred to as additive error . If output gap uncertainty can be treated as additive error it is optimal for policymakers to behave as if they knew the true value of the output gap. That is, policymakers should behave in a certainty equivalent fashion and set ....
Theil, H (1958), Economic forecasts and policy. North-Holland.
Caution and Gradualism in Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty - Martin (1998) (1 citation) (Correct)
....certainty equivalence principle states that an optimising policy maker can ignore uncertainties about disturbances to the economy when setting policy and proceed as if in a certain world. This principle has played an important role in policy discussions since its introduction by Simon (1956) and Theil (1958). But Brainard (1967) showed that when optimising policymakers are uncertain, not only about disturbances but also about various elasticities in the transmission mechanism, there were circumstances under which they should decide what should be done according to certainty equivalence, and then do ....
....inflation targeting in an openeconomy framework. 8 this way, parameter uncertainty, unlike additive uncertainty, changes the incentives facing the policy maker, and so policy is necessarily set differently from a world of purely additive shocks. The extension of the basic Tinbergen (1952) and Theil (1958) approach to one which accounts for estimated second moments as well as first moments could be argued to be a narrow (if important) interpretation of the uncertainty facing economic policy makers. The econometric model s structure is taken as given and for a stable regime, a large data set and ....
Theil, H, (1958), `Economic forecasts and policy', North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Predicting Real-Time Planner Preformance By Domain Charactorization - Kirman (1994) (Correct)
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H. Theil. Economic Forecasts and Policy. North-Holland, 1961.
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