K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.  Home/Search   Document Not in Database   Summary   Related Articles   Check

....The second argument is that content is not king of the Web. Most of the traffic on the Internet is corporate (especially if we include internal intranet traffic that is not visible on the public backbones) It is likely that in early 2000, under a third of the volume went to residential users [CoffmanO1, CoffmanO2 ]. Intranet traffic appears to be much less heavily biased towards the Web than that of private 8 individuals. Furthermore, even the traffic that appears to be Web based frequently represents a variety of database transactions that are not properly speaking content. Because browsers are a ....

K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.

....a role only in the rare cases where customers select a service. 30 14. Non Internet data networks Most of the corporate spending for data transmission is for private lines, in which a dedicated connection of a fixed bandwidth is provided by telecommunications carriers between two points. See [CoffmanO1] for estimates of the size of private line and public data networks. Increasingly such links carry IP traffic, and are thus part of the Internet. Still, they are not visible to general users, since they are hidden behind firewalls. The price of such a link depends on the bandwidth, distance, and ....

....depends on the bandwidth, distance, and various regulatory and political constraints (especially for international lines) but not on the traffic carried. Most of the ISPs that do not own fiber networks carry their traffic over private lines leased from larger carriers. In general, as is shown in [CoffmanO1], for longer private lines, distance dependence in pricing has been decreasing over the last two decades. In other respects, though, pricing of the long distance connections is becoming more complicated. In the days of strict government regulation, before the 1983 breakup of AT T, it used to be ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi. 37

....traffic in the U.S. in the early 1990s was doubling each year, as the publicly available statistics for the backbone of that period show. Since early 1997, the growth rate in traffic has reverted to 100 percent a year. This was apparently first pointed out by my colleague Kerry Coffman and myself [CoffmanO1] (which is based on data through the end of 1997) A recent update, based on information through mid2000, is available in a second paper we wrote [CoffmanO2] Admittedly, since most ISPs do not release their traffic statistics, the evidence for this estimate is often circumstantial. The details ....

....Inc. a telecommunications consulting firm, now estimates that traffic is growing about 200 percent per year, which while greater than 100 percent per year is still far short of the vaunted 700 to 1,500 percent. A recent joint study by J. P. Morgan and McKinsey, based partially on the work we did [CoffmanO1, CoffmanO2], concludes that the growth rate is close to 100 percent per year. There were even earlier reports from other consulting firms, such as Probe Research or Ovum, which also estimated growth rates closer to a doubling each year. The detailed description of the data and arguments that show that ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amo/doc/complete.htmli.

....demand leading to endemic congestion. When I first proposed PMP [23] I shared this view, but based on knowledge of how many networks are operated, felt that one should strive for maximal simplicity even at the expense of maximal efficiency in use of transport capacity. A recent series of studies [9, 13, 25, 26, 27] have led me to question the basic assumptions that underlie the work on differentiated services. Most of the Internet is very lightly utilized, most of the problems are not caused by link or switch congestion (which is what most QoS measures address) and the tragedy of the commons is much ....

Coffman, K. G. and Odlyzko, A. M. The size and growth rate of the Internet, First Monday, 3(10) (October 1998), hhttp://www.firstmonday.dk/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.

....traffic in the U.S. in the early 1990s was doubling each year, as the publicly available statistics for the backbone of that period show. Since early 1997, the growth rate in traffic has reverted to 100 percent a year. This was apparently first pointed out by my colleague Kerry Coffman and myself [CoffmanO1] 2 (which is based on data through the end of 1997) A recent update, based on information through mid2000, is available in a second paper we wrote [CoffmanO2] Admittedly, since most ISPs do not release their traffic statistics, the evidence for this estimate is often circumstantial. The details ....

....Inc. a telecommunications consulting firm, now estimates that traffic is growing about 200 percent per year, which while greater than 100 percent per year is still far short of the vaunted 700 to 1,500 percent. A recent joint study by J. P. Morgan and McKinsey, based partially on the work we did [CoffmanO1, CoffmanO2], concludes that the growth rate is close to 100 percent per year. There were even earlier reports from other consulting firms, such as Probe Research or Ovum, which also estimated growth rates closer to a doubling each year. The detailed description of the data and arguments that show that ....

[Article contains additional citation context not shown here]

K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amo/doc/complete.htmli.

....size and growth of the Internet, as well as about utilization patterns. This data is then used to justify some speculative predictions about the likely evolution of data networks. 1. Introduction This paper presents some of the highlights of the studies of data networks that are documented in [2, 5, 11, 12, 13] and in a few cases updates them. Much more detail about methodologies and results is available in those papers. This paper and those studies consider only highlevel aggregate measurements of the Internet, and do not look at details of protocols, say. There are many studies of the economics of ....

....are many studies of the economics of the Internet. Most of them are listed in [9, 10, 14] However, they are old (by Internet standards) and none of them answer such basic questions as how large the various parts of the Internet are, and how much they cost. A key point of the investigation of [2, 5, 11, 12, 13] was the need to consider not just the public Internet, but the full universe of data networks and their role in the economy. For simplicity, only networks inside the U.S. were considered. Since costs of transmission are much lower in the U.S. than in most other countries, these networks are ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.

....are usually read mostly in the first half a year after publication. Afterwards, usage drops off rapidly. 7. Growth in usage of electronic information The Internet is growing rapidly. Typical growth rates, whether of bytes of traffic on backbones, or of hosts, are on the order of 100 per year [CoffmanO]. When one looks at usage of scholarly information online, typical growth rates are in the 50 to 100 range. For example, Table 1 shows the utilization of the online resources of the Library of Congress. Growth was about 100 per year for four years, and then, in 1999, it slowed down to 38.5 . ....

K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.

....be dominated by file transfers, not by real time streaming media. Internet growth: Is there a Moore s Law for data traffic K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko AT T Labs Research kgc research.att.com, amo research.att.com Preliminary version, July 11, 2000. 1. Introduction An earlier paper [CoffmanO] estimated the sizes of telecommunications networks in the U.S. and the traffic they carried. We concentrated on the U.S. because of lack of data about other countries, and because the disparate development stages of their communications infrastructures make cross country comparisons difficult. ....

....are summarized in Table 1.1, with the units of measurement being terabytes per month. A voice call for the purposes of this measurement was counted as two 64 Kb s streams of data, and fax and modem calls carried on the switched long distance network were counted as voice. For details, see [CoffmanO]. Table 1.1. Traffic on U.S. long distance networks, year end 1997. network traffic (TB month) US voice 40,000 Internet 2,500 4,000 other public data networks 500 private line 3,000 5,000 We also considered the growth rates of various networks. While reliable information had long been ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet. First Monday, Oct. 1998, hhttp://firstmonday.org/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/amoi.

....leading to endemic congestion. When I first proposed PMP [Odlyzko0] I shared this view, but based on knowledge of how many networks are operated, felt that one should strive for maximal simplicity even at the expense of maximal efficiency in use of transport capacity. A recent series of studies [CoffmanO, FishburnO, Odlyzko2, Odlyzko3, Odlyzko4] have led me to question the basic assumptions that underlie the work on differentiated services. Most of the Internet is very lightly utilized, most of the problems are not caused by link or switch congestion (which is what most QoS measures address) and the tragedy of the commons is much less ....

K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet, First Monday, 3(10) (October 1998), hhttp://www.firstmonday.dk/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/¸amoi.

....design and operation of networks. This paper documents the low utilization levels of data networks mentioned above (and summarized in Table 1) It is likely that some people in the communications industry understand this already. For example, given the aggregate size of private line networks (see [CoffmanO]) the only way that the MCI prediction (see Vint Cerf s presentations at [Cerf] of data traffic overtaking voice traffic around the year 2002 can be correct is if private line networks are extremely lightly utilized. Sections 2 and 3 discuss what networks are to be measured, and the units of ....

....in [Ash] on Monday, Dec. 2, 1991, which was the busiest day for the AT T network until then, of 157.5 million calls, only 228 were blocked on intercity connections. In spite of this, the average utilization of long distance links in the switched voice network is close to 33 , as is explained in [CoffmanO], based on data from [Ash] This efficiency comes from careful engineering (using techniques such as RTNR, Real Time Network Routing [Ash] that route calls between New York City and Philadelphia through Chicago when spare capacity is available on those routes) from the smoother and more ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet, First Monday, 3(10) (October 1998), http://www.firstmonday.dk/. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/¸amoi.

....such as packet telephony and videoconferencing, are leading to demands for differential treatment of packets. Similar demands are coming from the corporate side. Private line networks use the same IP (Internet protocol) technology, are far larger in aggregate than the public Internet [CoffmanO], and have been providing high QoS largely through low utilization levels [Odlyzko1] However, with demand for bandwidth rising, corporate network managers are also demanding tools such as prioritization to ensure higher efficiency of network usage. Differential service quality will inevitably ....

....as it accounts for about half of the total cost of long haul networks. While new optical fiber technologies led to a dramatic drop in rates for leased lines in the 1980s and early 1990s, prices have been increasing recently as a consequence of scarcity of supply and rapidly growing demand (see [CoffmanO, Rendleman] for examples) Network operators have been lowering their cost per unit of bandwidth by moving to higher capacity lines (see Section 2 for data and discussion of this issue) and by signing long term leases. In an environment of rising prices, differential QoS and more sophisticated pricing ....

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K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet, First Monday, vol. 3, no. 10 (October 1998), hhttp://www.firstmonday.dk/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/¸amoi.

....demand leading to endemic congestion. When I first proposed PMP [10] I shared this view, but based on knowledge of how many networks are operated, felt that one should strive for maximal simplicity even at the expense of maximal efficiency in use of transport capacity. A recent series of studies [2, 11, 12, 13] has raised questions about the basic assumptions that underlie the work on QoS, or at least the backbones of the Internet. Most of the Internet is very lightly utilized, most of the problems are not caused by link or switch congestion (which is what QoS measures address) and the tragedy of the ....

K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko, The size and growth rate of the Internet, First Monday, 3(10) (October 1998), hhttp://www.firstmonday.dk/i. Also available at hhttp://www.research.att.com/¸amoi.

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