Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King and Langche Zeng. 1998. "The Problem with Quantitative Studies of International Conflict." http://wizard.ucr.edu/polmeth/ working_papers98/beck98.html.  Home/Search   Document Details and Download   Summary   Related Articles

....model with an autoregressive error structure (the latter model is fit via Bayesian simulation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods) I illustrate these models in the context of international conflict data. Like other re analyses of these data addressing the issue of serial dependence, e.g. Beck, Katz and Tucker 1998), I find economic interdependence does not lessen the chances of international conflict. Other findings include a number of interesting asymmetries in the effects of covariates on transitions from peace to war (and vice versa) Any reasonable model of international conflict should take into ....

.... the shortcomings of running a regression on qualitative data (the so called linear probability model ) are numerous and well known to political scientists (Aldrich 1 I note at the outset that models of duration and event histories do not lie comfortably within this dichotomy; and indeed, Beck, Katz and Tucker (1998) show how duration models can be used to capture serial dependence in longitudinal binary data encountered in the democratic peace literature. 2 regression (continuous y) time series (continuous y, serially dependent) qualitative ....

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Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King and Langche Zeng. 1998. "The Problem with Quantitative Studies of International Conflict." http://wizard.ucr.edu/polmeth/ working_papers98/beck98.html.

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