Smith, R., Davis, J. Sacks, J. Speckman, P. , and Styer. P. (1999), "Air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama: A reappraisal". Tech Report. Department of Statistics, University of North Carolina.

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Model Uncertainty and Health Effect Studies for Particulate Matter - Clyde (2000)   (Correct)

....risks associated with changes in particulate matter. For example, in analyses for Birmingham, AL, Schwartz (1993) found the best model had a relative risk of 1.11, based on 100 g=m 3 increase in PM 10 , using a PM 10 exposure measure based on the average of PM 10 for the three previous days. Smith et al. 1999) (to be referred to as SDSSS) found that results were sensitive to the exposure measure of PM 10 used in the model. Using the same exposure measure as Schwartz, SDSSS found a statistically significant relationship between PM 10 and non accidental elderly mortality, but when allowing for model ....

....an artifact of model selection. In this paper, data from Birmingham, AL are re analyzed using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in conjunction with generalized additive models to assess the impact of model uncertainty on estimates of relative risks due to changes in PM 10 . As in Schwartz (1993) and Smith et al. 1999), the response variable is non accidental mortality. Additional information on the data and variables is given in section 2. In section 3, we describe the hierarchical Poisson regression model for model averaging. In section 4, we present a class of objective prior distributions for generalized ....

Smith, R., Davis, J. Sacks, J. Speckman, P. , and Styer. P. (1999), "Air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama: A reappraisal". Tech Report. Department of Statistics, University of North Carolina.

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