| Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2002a), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," working paper. |
....First draft: January 1999 This version: June 2002 Abstract This paper proves a certainty equivalence result for optimal policy under commitment with symmetric partial information about the state of the economy in a model with forwardlooking variables. This result is used in our previous paper [9], which synthesizes what is known about the case of symmetric partial information, and derives useful general formulas for computation of the optimal policy response coe#cients and e#cient estimates of the state of the economy in the context of a fairly general forward looking ....
....predetermined variables describing the state of the economy and specific Lagrange multipliers (related to the value that alternative expectations would have had in the previous period s policy problem) as in the case of the corresponding optimal policy problem under certainty. Our previous paper [9] synthesizes what is known about the case of symmetric partial information, and derives useful general formulas for computation of the optimal policy response coe#cients and e#cient estimates of the state of the economy in the context of a fairly general forward looking (rational expectations) ....
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Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2002a), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," working paper.
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Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2002), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Pol- icy," Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming.
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Svensson, L.E.O., Woodford, M., 2002a. Indicator variables for optimal policy, working paper, Princeton University.
....as follows. Section 2 discusses in#ation, output, money and interest 3 The role of indicators in monetary policy is discussed in a classic papers by Kareken, Muench and Wallace [23] and Friedman [15] A recent more general discussion is in Svensson [36, section 3. 3] Svensson and Woodford [39] provide a rigorous analysis of the role of indicators for optimal policy in a model with partial information and forward looking variables. 4 Wesche [46] takes this approach and estimates P models on aggregated data for various European groupings of countries. 5 A third route is to use U.S. ....
Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2000), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, " Working Paper.
....targeting is more robust than in#ation targeting. However, they use robust in the sense of using less information, regardless of how relevant and reliable that information is. In contrast, in#ation forecast targeting uses all available and relevant information (see Svensson and Woodford [8] for details on how partial information is used eciently) It is misleading to state that in#ation forecast targeting requires full information, as Seitz and Tdter do. Because in#ation forecast targeting uses available information eciently, and in particular allows judgemental adjustments, it ....
Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2000), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Paper No. 7953.
....of the specification of the central bank s incomplete information; and the optimal weights to place on alternative indicators in estimating the state vector are independent of the central bank s objective function. 1 This paper contributes to a program (initiated in Svensson and Woodford [12]) that seeks to determine the extent to which similar methods may be applied in the context of the sort of forward looking models that are now widely used by central banks in policy simulations. Forward looking models that is, models in which the state of the economy is determined, among other ....
....banks in policy simulations. Forward looking models that is, models in which the state of the economy is determined, among other factors, by expectations regarding the economy s future state raise non trivial complications not contemplated in the standard treatments of the 1970s. In [12], we consider a general class of linear quadratic models, in which the private sector and the central bank areassumedtohavethesame partial information about the state of the economy. In this special case, we are able to establish that both certainty equivalence and a separation principle still ....
[Article contains additional citation context not shown here]
Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2000), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, " NBER Working Paper No. 7953.
....the optimal reaction function could be calculated, it would be far too complex to ever be veri. able. In fact, the optimal reaction function is overwhelmingly complex even if the simple models presented above, once the optimal response to judgment is taken into account. 21 Svensson and Woodford [85] discuss problems when these estimates depend on forward looking observable variables. 13 3.1 The backward looking model For the backward looking model, 2.4) and (2.5) appendix A shows that the optimal reaction function is given by i t =r 1 1 c x r ( t 1;t ) x r x t ....
Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2000), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Working Paper.
....are independent of the speci. cation of the central bank s incomplete information; and the optimal weights to place on alternative indicators in estimating thestatevectorareindependentofthecentralbank sobjectivefunction. 1 This paper contributes to a program (initiated in Svensson and Woodford [12]) that seeks to determine the extent to which similar methods may be applied in the context of the sort of forward looking models that are now widely used by central banks in policy simulations. Forward looking models that is, models in which the state of the economy is determined, among other ....
....banks in policy simulations. Forward looking models that is, models in which the state of the economy is determined, among other factors, by expectations regarding the economy s future state raise non trivial complications not contemplated in the standard treatments of the 1970s. In [12], we consider a general class of linear quadratic models, in which the private sector and the central bank are assumed to have the same partial information about the state of the economy. In this special case, we are able to establish that both certainty equivalence and a separation principle ....
[Article contains additional citation context not shown here]
Svensson, Lars E.O., and Michael Woodford (2000), "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, " NBER Working Paper No. 7953.
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Svensson, L.E.O. and M. Woodford, 1999, Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, in preparation.
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L.E.O. SVENSSON - M. WOODFORD (2000), Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy , NBER Working Paper, n.7953.
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