Kim, C.J., and C. Nelson. "Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle." Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81(4) pp. 608-617. Home/Search Document Details and Download
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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - International Finance.. (2000) (Correct)
....2 The job creation and destruction literature comes to a similar conclusion; see Ritter (1994) 1 I. Introduction Recent evidence suggests that the U.S. economy has become more stable over the past 15 years, although the cause is not yet known. For example, McConnell and Quiros (2000) and Kim and Nelson (1999) document breaks in the magnitude of the business cycle in early 1984. One possible reason for the increased stability is the economy s dramatic post WWII structural transformation: from 1946 to 1996 employment in the notoriously volatile manufacturing sector fell from 35 percent of U.S. workers ....
.... (e.g. French and Sichel, 1993) that the business cycle is asymmetrical aggregate employment fluctuations are greater in recessions than in expansions but that volatility has declined in both recessions and expansions, roughly over the period highlighted by McConnell and Quiros (2000) and Kim and Nelson (1999). To better understand the decline in aggregate volatility, we examine volatility patterns in the nine major sectors of the U.S. economy. We find that the volatility of employment in the manufacturing sector, specifically in durable goods manufacturing, is strikingly similar to aggregate ....
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Kim, C.J., and C. Nelson. "Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle." Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81(4) pp. 608-617.
Is There a Structural Break in the Equity Premium? - Kim, Morley, Nelson (2000) Self-citation (Nelson) (Correct)
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Kim, Chang-Jin and Charles R. Nelson, 1999a, "Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle," Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4): 608-616.
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