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by Xudong Luo, Chengqi Zhang
Australia Journal of Intelligent Information Processing Systems 4(1
http://www3.cm.deakin.edu.au/~chengqi/paper.dir/97-17.ps
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Abstract:
The "take-them-in-or-leave-them-out " of prior probabilities is a key problem in uncertain reasoning. The EMYCIN uncertain reasoning model is inconsistent with probability theory, due to `leaving them out', whereas the PROSPECTOR uncertain reasoning model is substantially consistent with probability theory, due to `taking them in'. However, in the PROSPECTOR model, there are the following problems: 1) prior probabilities need to be supplied with values by human experts, which is a very arduous task; 2) to overcome the problem of the inconsistency among the values of prior probabilities, the formula for sequential propagation used in this model is a pseudo-probability formula, which weakens the theoretical basis of the model; and 3) the semantics of rule strength is difficult to understand. This paper presents a PROSPECTOR-like uncertain reasoning model for solving the above three problems. Moreover, we illustrate our discussion with an example. 1
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