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  Chapter 1 Predicting sunspot numbers

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by Jari Kyngas, Juha Hakkarainen
http://cs.joensuu.fi/~jkyngas/jarijuha.ps
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Abstract:

Abstract. We have analyzed the Wolf's sunspot series in order to construct an evolutionary optimized feedforward neural network model to predict the yearly sunspot number average. We compare the results of our model to the results of the neural network model constructed by Weigend, Huberman and Rumelhart and to the results of a SETAR model identified by Ghaddar and Tong, which is taken to be the best statistical model to predict sunspot numbers. Neural network models perform well in this comparison. If threshold information is included in the neural network models then they clearly outperform the statistical non-linear threshold models.

Citations

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